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#900495 - 07/14/09 01:16 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: jamboslice]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Ah, Moneyball, the definitive, final word on objective analysis. Don't get me wrong...it's a great place to start. But the world might have changed as much since then as the book originally changed the world.
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#900496 - 07/14/09 03:05 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: jamboslice]
Hawk1990 Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/03/06
Loc: Shawnee, KS
Quote:

I own Moneyball and have read it about 5 times dude, you're preaching to the wrong person




Two things:

A) If that came off as preaching, my apologies. I was fooled by the "OBP is a very good measuring stick for offensive ability, but..." comment.

B) If you've read Moneyball that many times, you should have come away with the knowledge that Betancourt is precisely the kind of player that low-budget teams shouldn't bet on. Even if he turns his career around and fulfills the wildest dreams about his supposed potential, that still won't make this a good bet by Moore. It will make it dumb f'n luck.

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#900497 - 07/14/09 03:09 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: Hawk1990]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
And that right there is the problem. It's an organizational culture issue: decisions must NOT be judged by outcome, but by process.
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#900498 - 07/14/09 03:18 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: JFish26]
Hawk1990 Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/03/06
Loc: Shawnee, KS
Quote:

And that right there is the problem. It's an organizational culture issue: decisions must NOT be judged by outcome, but by process.




Correct. And if you've properly applied your process each time and are still getting unacceptable results, it's time to re-evaluate your process. Sadly, the Royals either don't know that or they are gathering WAY more data than most people would need before realizing that their process is broken.

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#900499 - 07/14/09 03:19 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: Hawk1990]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
All evidence seems to suggest the Royals are gathering no data.
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#900500 - 07/14/09 03:26 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: JFish26]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
JFish and 1990 Did you see this quote from Moore? I'm quoting from the KCRoyals message board, so I actually didn't hear it myself:

"The defensive statistics - I still really don't understand how some of those statistics are evaluated, I really don't. When you watch baseball games every single day, its very apparent who can play defensively and who can't."
-Dayton Moore, this morning on "The Border Patrol" on 810 WHB

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#900501 - 07/14/09 03:37 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: jnewell]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Yeah...terrifying. Honestly, a big part of Dayton's job should be setting up and running an analysis department that churns out proprietary stuff.

Here's the best takedown of Moore's comment that I've yet seen:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dayton-moore-and-defense

So, basically, the deal is that an analyst has been keeping track of how good defense fans think their teams' players play. As we've gotten a much better hold on how to actually quantify defense in a meaningful way, it turns out that, largely, the fans are right. So Dayton loses the "when you watch baseball every day" argument. Money quote from that post:

"The fans say Betancourt has lost defensive quality steadily since 2005 and so does UZR. Both agree the biggest jump happened between 2007 and 2008. I suppose you could say the numbers have influenced the fans a bit we are talking about a pretty intelligent fan base with Seattle but our version of UZR only became readily available last winter.

The fans and UZR agree that Betancourt has gotten progressively worse and is a below average shortstop, Moore and the Royals scouts dont. Odds are, Moore and company have the least amount of data to form their opinion on Betancourt. Well see if Moore is right after all."
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#900502 - 07/14/09 05:02 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: jnewell]
Hawk1990 Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/03/06
Loc: Shawnee, KS
Quote:

JFish and 1990 Did you see this quote from Moore? I'm quoting from the KCRoyals message board, so I actually didn't hear it myself:

"The defensive statistics - I still really don't understand how some of those statistics are evaluated, I really don't. When you watch baseball games every single day, its very apparent who can play defensively and who can't."
-Dayton Moore, this morning on "The Border Patrol" on 810 WHB




Yeah, I heard it and I was disgusted. That comment means that the GM of the Royals openly admitted that he's incapable of doing part of his job. Whether he likes it or not, whether he puts much weight in them or not, Moore MUST utilize all sources of information available to him when evaluating a player's performance. That means looking at the stats AND talking to analysts who can explain them to him AND reading scouting reports AND talking to scouts first-hand AND sometimes watching the player personally. What Moore admitted yesterday is that he purposefully ignores some of those sources, and it seems that it has to be for one of these reasons:

1. He's too stupid to understand them
2. He's too impatient to have them explained to him
3. He's too convinced that they won't tell him anything he doesn't already know.

Maybe there are other options, but those are the only ones I can think of. And, frankly, if any of them are true, he deserves to be fired.

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#900503 - 07/14/09 05:26 PM Re: Royals get SS Yuniesky Betancourt from Seattle [Re: Hawk1990]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
I'm with Doolittle at the Star...Moore's a smart, smart guy. For some silly reason, however, he thinks what worked in Atlanta in the 90s has to work now. He's unwilling to play chess when everyone else has moved past checkers.
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