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#647158 - 10/31/08 11:31 AM Re: Fire Dayton ***** [Re: EastCoastJHawk]
EastCoastJHawk Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/13/07
Loc: On the sofa
Quote:

While I question the move.....a lot.......as well....





JFIsh, before you flood the board with even more OPINIONS. Read my own quote
_________________________
"I would not be at all shocked if Illinois is in the same league as KU in 2 years" - Gutter 3/11/09

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#647159 - 10/31/08 11:33 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
EastCoastJHawk Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/13/07
Loc: On the sofa
Quote:

The point is that I'm NOT any different than any other stiff who wants to know about baseball and statistical evaluation.





You sure you believe that?

Anybody in this thread that disagreed with you (which btw, I never said it was a good trade, just playing a wait-and-see approach) you make such statements as "You are wrong - very, very wrong" etc.

You just come off looking like a complete douche.
_________________________
"I would not be at all shocked if Illinois is in the same league as KU in 2 years" - Gutter 3/11/09

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#647160 - 10/31/08 11:33 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: EastCoastJHawk]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Talk to me on June 1 when Ka'aihue is bending the minor leagues to his will and Jacobs is sitting .220/.280/.450.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#647161 - 10/31/08 11:36 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
EastCoastJHawk Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/13/07
Loc: On the sofa
Quote:

Talk to me on June 1 when Ka'aihue is bending the minor leagues to his will and Jacobs is sitting .220/.280/.450.




My Alzheimer's won't let me remember this conversation on June 1.

Remind me then.

Just make sure you do it whether you're "right" or "wrong"

m'kay?
_________________________
"I would not be at all shocked if Illinois is in the same league as KU in 2 years" - Gutter 3/11/09

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#647162 - 10/31/08 11:37 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: EastCoastJHawk]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

Quote:

The point is that I'm NOT any different than any other stiff who wants to know about baseball and statistical evaluation.





You sure you believe that?

Anybody in this thread that disagreed with you (which btw, I never said it was a good trade, just playing a wait-and-see approach) you make such statements as "You are wrong - very, very wrong" etc.

You just come off looking like a complete douche.




I absolutely believe that I don't know anything about baseball than any average person can know. People much more familiar with objective analysis than me (Law, Neyer, and Jazeyerli come to mind) all condemn the deal and come to similar conclusions about the arguments raised in favor of the trade.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#647163 - 10/31/08 11:39 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
EastCoastJHawk Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/13/07
Loc: On the sofa
Quote:


I absolutely believe that I don't know anything about baseball than any average person can know. People much more familiar with objective analysis than me (Law, Neyer, and Jazeyerli come to mind) all condemn the deal and come to similar conclusions about the arguments raised in favor of the trade.




LOL - again, I question the trade as well, you don't have to "convince" me.

You are missing my point.
_________________________
"I would not be at all shocked if Illinois is in the same league as KU in 2 years" - Gutter 3/11/09

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#647164 - 10/31/08 12:14 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: EastCoastJHawk]
Merg311 Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/01/06
Loc: Hays, KS
Talking about the Royals in October?!?!? It's been 23 years since this last occurred!
_________________________
"Anything from Missouri has a taint about it."

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#647165 - 10/31/08 07:31 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
I don't think Jacobs is past his prime, I think at 28 he is the middle of his prime, he should have his best years now. If he can give me 3 years averaging .250, 25HR's, 80-90 RBI's, I'll be happy. In 3 years, Eric Hosmer should be close to being the Royals regular first baseman.
I agree with you that Jacobs OBP keeps him from being a very good player, but the player you want will cost 10 million per year, not the 3 million that Jacobs will get..
This move is not the only move the Royals make, I this this is a first in a series of moves.
_________________________
" Stay thirsty my friends ".

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#647166 - 10/31/08 09:12 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jammahawk]
Hawk1990 Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/03/06
Loc: Shawnee, KS
Quote:

...I agree with you that Jacobs OBP keeps him from being a very good player, but the player you want will cost 10 million per year, not the 3 million that Jacobs will get...




Not true. Using your own criteria (At least 25 homers, 85 RBI and .250 AVG, plus an OBP that is at a league average mark of .340), here are a few guys who played a corner spot in the infield or outfield last year and posted those numbers or better, yet are still easily affordable by a team like the Royals:

Aubrey Huff - $8 million
Carlos Pena - $6 million
Ryan Ludwick - $411,000
Xavier Nady - $3.35 million
Brad Hawpe - $3.9 million
Jason Bay - $6 million
Kevin Youkilis - $3 million
Adam LaRoche - $5 million
Adrian Gonzalez - $875,000
Josh Hamilton - $397,000
Carlos Quentin - $400,000

Almost all of those guys was a free agent at some point, or was traded by his original club, or (in the case of Youkilis) was offered to the Royals in a trade only to be turned down. And I didn't even get into younger players like Nate McLouth and David Wright and Evan Longoria who were developed by their own teams and are still dirt cheap. Some of these guys, like Ludwick and LaRoche and Pena and Nady, precisely fit the Kila Ka'aihue or Ryan Shealy mold of guys who weren't considered grade A prospects and panned out anyway because some team gave them the chance to play.

With decisions like the Jacobs deal, it's not surprising that none of these guys has ever played for the Royals.

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#647167 - 10/31/08 09:35 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Hawk1990]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
I can't argue with those stats, however, I was basing my argument based on an OBP higher than the league average. Your argument may still prove valid.
IMO, Jacobs addition makes them better than they were. I don't think he is being a road block to anyones career. Butler will play somewhere if he produces, KK needs to replicate his AA numbers in Omaha for most of next year, and I look for Shealy to be delt.
Giving up Nunez makes this trade worth the gamble, I'd make that trade everyday if i could.
_________________________
" Stay thirsty my friends ".

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#647168 - 11/01/08 06:59 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jammahawk]
Hawk1990 Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/03/06
Loc: Shawnee, KS
Shealy isn't likely to be dealt. He is out of options and that's public knowledge, so few teams are going to deal for a guy who may well be released anyway. Which is yet another reason why the Jacobs deal doesn't make sense to me, because it's been reported that the Marlins were looking to release Jacobs outright rather than go to arbitration with him. Why give up one of your trading chips for a guy you can sign off the street?

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#647169 - 11/01/08 07:28 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Hawk1990]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
Because all it cost you was Leo Nunez to ensure you got the guy you wanted.
_________________________
" Stay thirsty my friends ".

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#647170 - 11/01/08 02:54 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jammahawk]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
A fine strategy except for that the guy they wanted sucks.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#647171 - 11/01/08 06:01 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
Like I said before, I'll trade Nunez for Jacobs all day long.
KC is a team that has been depending on Mark Teahen for left handed power, so in my eyes they have improved themselves. No, they didn't get a guy with a .400 plus OBP, that would have been great, but they got a guy who is servicable until Hosmer (the guy they want eventually) is ready.
I don't want to hear they have the same player already in Shealy or KK, we don't know that, they may never pan out. With Jacobs you have a guy that should get you 25 HR's 80-100 RBI, and around .240 OBP, maybe .260 if he learns to take a walk.
I'm not trying to convince anyone this guy is a great player, I'm just saying the Royals improved themselves in a small way, they pretty much got him for nothing. If he can't play, they have Butler put on a glove and do his Mike Sweeney imitation.
You know how valuable OBP is, I know, almost everyone knows, as does Dayton Moore. It is easy for us to say we need that kind of player, but Moore has to actually make the trade or sign the guy.
Jacobs is pretty much a low risk gamble, nothing to lose.
_________________________
" Stay thirsty my friends ".

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#647172 - 11/01/08 06:10 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jammahawk]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

I don't want to hear they have the same player already in Shealy or KK, we don't know that, they may never pan out. With Jacobs you have a guy that should get you 25 HR's 80-100 RBI, and around .240 OBP, maybe .260 if he learns to take a walk.




A) It's not really fair to say "I don't want to hear [the best and most important argument against Moore's trade for Jacobs.]"

B) I'm not saying we already people who are as good as Jacobs. We already have people that are better.

C) I'm not going to jump on you for mistaking OBP for batting average. I know what you meant. I will, however, insist that RBI's mean very, very little when evaluating hitters on an individual basis.

---

I get it, people--he hit 30 home runs, is only 28, and only (?) costs a middle reliever. All of these things are true.

It's ignorant of reality to think, however, that (1) he's going to be as good (?) or better in the AL at a past-prime age, (2) that the Royals don't have three better options at first base already available, (3) that this was the best we could do for Nunez, and (4) that this trade represents progress or improvement on the part of Moore's decision-making.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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