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#647143 - 10/30/08 11:16 PM Re: Fire Dayton ***** [Re: Jphog]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
OPS is flawed because it rates getting on base and hitting for power evenly; this is wrong. Getting on base is about four times as important.
Jacobs makes this team worse by his presence and Nunez' absence. I'm not prepared to give Moore a pass for this just because he's the GM and I'm not. By objective statistical analysis, this trade is indefensible. It indicates a complete ignorance of readily available knowledge. We would have been much, much better off without the deal in the first place.
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#647144 - 10/30/08 11:16 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
Stats for anyone who wants them:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6385

What if..

Good season-25HR. 90RBI. 70R. .260avg. 30doubles. .500SLG. and around a .320-.330 OBP. With this season he will have done his job of driving in runs along with the scare of being able to put the ball over the fence.

That is just me but I truly think this offense is making a move in the right direction

1. DeJesus (cf)
2. Alives (ss/2b)
3. Butler/Gordon (dh/1b) (3b)
4. Guillen (lf/rf)
5. Jacobs (1b/dh)
6. Butler/Gordon (dh/1b) (3b)
7. Olivo (C)
8. Teahen? (rf/lf)
9. Whoever is playing 2b/ss
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#647145 - 10/30/08 11:20 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: tyler]
Jphog Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 07/14/06
Loc: Lawrence
Which is worth more, a single/walk, a double, a triple, or a homerun?

Obviously we need to improve our hitting approach, and hopefully the necessary adjustments are being made in the minors so our system is producing more patient productive hitters. It takes time to change years of failure.

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#647146 - 10/30/08 11:38 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Jphog]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Tyler, I think your best case scenario is pretty unrealistic. Its not reasonable to think he'll be better in a harder league at a past-peak age than he's ever been before.
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#647147 - 10/31/08 12:05 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
I was going off of what his statistical past has shown. The guy has played just over 400 games which is 2.5 seasons )full 162) so I do not believe in the peak has already passed.
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#647148 - 10/31/08 12:06 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: tyler]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
BTW, I just noticed that you are only 70 some posts from Max.
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#647149 - 10/31/08 12:08 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
fiveboltmain23 Offline
Lawrence Legend

Registered: 02/20/06
Compare Mike Jacobs stats to that of former Royals first baseman, Jeff King.

King through his first four years in the majors put together an OBP of .280. Over his next five, he put together an OBP of .350.

And going by your argument that OBP is four times more important than slugging percentage, I imagine that therefore means that Kevin Seitzer was ten times the player Bo Jackson was.

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#647150 - 10/31/08 12:30 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: fiveboltmain23]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
I mean that OBP is four times more correlated with winning percentage than is SLG. And Tyler, thanks for the heads up.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#647151 - 10/31/08 06:32 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
The Royals need left handed power. Period. Jacobs is decent, not great, but he does fill a need at an affordable price.
Look for Moore to trade off some players to remove the log jam. I would not be surprised or upset if Butler was delt.
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#647152 - 10/31/08 07:58 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jammahawk]
EastCoastJHawk Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/13/07
Loc: On the sofa
While I question the move.....a lot.......as well....

I'm willing to be patient and see how it shakes out. While it's easy to play armchair GM, and I do it as well, it's funny to watch how some people on this board are so sure that they know EVERYthing....

While he may never be a "good" GM, time will tell, I'm still willing to bet Dayton Moore has 1000x the experience and knowledge of running a baseball team compared to anybody on this board including myself.

Some of you need to get over yourselves.
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#647153 - 10/31/08 09:59 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: EastCoastJHawk]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

While I question the move.....a lot.......as well....

I'm willing to be patient and see how it shakes out. While it's easy to play armchair GM, and I do it as well, it's funny to watch how some people on this board are so sure that they know EVERYthing....

While he may never be a "good" GM, time will tell, I'm still willing to bet Dayton Moore has 1000x the experience and knowledge of running a baseball team compared to anybody on this board including myself.

Some of you need to get over yourselves.




Moore absolutely does not have 1000 times (or even twice) the knowledge available to anyone on this board. Based on his moves, it's fair to say that Moore knows less about player evaluation than is available to any old loser with access to Baseball Prospectus.

The importance of on-base percentage is not a wild theory; it is a hard fact. OBP is more strongly correlated with success than any other offensive statistic. Jacobs defines the term "one-dimensional" in that the only thing he is good at is hitting a baseball a long way. He's a terrible defender and can't take a walk to save his life. He could be marginally useful on a team with very high-OBP guys hitting ahead of him; the Royals return exactly two players with even decent OBP skill.

Jacobs is a terrible fit for other reasons, too. He costs more money than would any of the other 1B/DH options, which is the worst kind of resource misallocation.

Finally, giving up on Butler at this age makes no sense whatsoever. He's 22 years old. Let me clarify: Brandon Rush, Russell Robinson, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun, and Brady Morningstar are all older than Billy Butler, who has over 700 major league at-bats. There is so much room for him to improve, and many factors suggest he will. Trading Billy Butler for a steep discount (which will happen as a result of this move) will haunt the Royals for the next decade.
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#647154 - 10/31/08 10:05 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
EastCoastJHawk Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/13/07
Loc: On the sofa
Quote:


Finally, giving up on Butler at this age makes no sense whatsoever. He's 22 years old. Let me clarify: Brandon Rush, Russell Robinson, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun, and Brady Morningstar are all older than Billy Butler, who has over 700 major league at-bats. There is so much room for him to improve, and many factors suggest he will. Trading Billy Butler for a steep discount (which will happen as a result of this move) will haunt the Royals for the next decade.




To start with, in your rant, this was the only part I truly read. And I agree 100%.

Just sayin give the guy a chance, he's been the Royals GM for what a grand total of 2-3 years? When he came in the Royals were one of the 3 worst teams in baseball. He's trying.

And Jfish, a lot of your posts are good and make sense, but you are a law student, get over yourself that you are some genius that knows more than everyone who makes a (good) living doing this stuff. (exaggeration intended)
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#647155 - 10/31/08 11:17 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: EastCoastJHawk]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
The point is that I'm NOT any different than any other stiff who wants to know about baseball and statistical evaluation. All this information is readily available. I'm not holding my knowledge over anyone--it's all out there. I have a big problem with the notion that Moore knows more (or can know much more) than we do, because it's just not true. Some very forward-thinking front offices have better information than is publicly available about defense and baserunning, but we already know Jacobs is awful in those facets of the game.

That the average person who avails themselves of modern objective analysis knows this trade is crap but the general manager of the Kansas City Royals doesn't scares the hell out of me.
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#647156 - 10/31/08 11:20 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
But don't take my word for it. Keith Law:

Jacobs deal compounds K.C.'s offensive problems

Friday, October 31, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

I addressed this briefly in chat Thursday, but it's worth reiterating: The Royals' trade for Mike Jacobs was a profoundly wrongheaded move.

Jacobs should not get regular playing time from a major league club, period. The fact that the Royals looked at him and thought, "Wow, everyday first baseman!" is terrifying, because it's so wrong. Jacobs:

Is a horrendous on-base guy. He posted a .299 OBP in 2008, and even that was inflated by 10 intentional walks. Take those out and his OBP drops to .285. In the National League, no less. Players who make outs in over 70 percent of their plate appearances can't play every day in a corner spot unless the team's goal is to score as few runs as possible.

Has a massive platoon split. In 338 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching in the majors, Jacobs is hitting .235/.275/.414. He's not any great shakes against right-handers -- his OBP against righties, removing intentional walks, was just .297 in 2008 -- but he is useless against lefties.

Is a terrible defensive first baseman, possibly the worst in baseball. He has bad hands and no range and is bad enough that he probably needs to DH.

Acquiring Jacobs is a bad idea for any team, but the Royals were historically bad in an area where Jacobs is himself very, very bad. The 2008 Royals were just the third AL team since 1931 to finish a season with fewer than 400 walks drawn. Jacobs just makes a serious problem worse.

For the privilege of burning a roster spot on Jacobs, the Royals will pay him between $2 million and $3 million this year in arbitration while they have to find a platoon partner for him and pay that player as well, to say nothing of the higher salaries he'll earn in 2010 and 2011. (In fact, several industry sources told me they expected the Marlins would have non-tendered Jacobs in December.) They also added to a positional logjam; Billy Butler needs regular playing time and needs to DH, Ryan Shealy is still hanging around and is a good bet to outproduce Jacobs for less money, and Kila Ka'aihue just posted a combined .314/.449/.628 line between AA and AAA. He's not a great athlete and he's going to struggle some against better pitching, but Jacobs struggles against all pitching and Ka'aihue could top a .300 OBP in his sleep. That's before we consider Alex Gordon's struggles at third base and the chance that he'll end up at first. Jacobs is merely an intestinal obstruction in the digestive system of the Royals.

The player the Marlins received in return, Leo Nunez, is, in scouting parlance, "a guy." He can pitch in a big-league pen. He might grow up to be an eighth inning guy, but probably not. He costs nothing and can give you 60-70 decent innings. He throws strikes with a low-90s cutter, will flash a four-seamer up to 94-95, and throws a fringy slider; his changeup is poor and lefties hit him hard, although his arm slot might be all right for a splitter. He's under control for four more years and should be a good value for at least the first three even if he never develops a true swing-and-miss pitch.

Nunez is not a star, but he has value; the Marlins got that value for a player they were probably going to discard in two months, while the Royals just miscalculated badly and are threatening to exacerbate the biggest offensive problem in 2008, their lack of patience.
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#647157 - 10/31/08 11:26 AM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Rob Neyer:

If not for my lingering affection for the team of my misspent youth, this might strike me as funny. But instead it's a little sad and a little infuriating.

Mike Jacobs is not a good baseball player. He's just not. Jacobs' career OPS+ is 110. That number almost perfectly describes Jacobs' current abilities, as he has been quite consistent. Here are his OPS+ numbers for the past three years: 106, 100, 109. Good for a hitter, but not for a hitter who plays first base.

Yes, he did hit 32 home runs last season. To be a good hitter with a .299 on-base percentage, you have to hit at least 40 homers. Maybe 50.

Oh, and fielding? According to the numbers, Jacobs is one of the worst-fielding first basemen in the majors. He's lousy on bunts, he's lousy on the balls hit to his left, he's lousy on the balls hit to his right and he's lousy on wait for it the balls hit right at him.

I don't mean to suggest that Jacobs will be a disaster next season. He's only 28. If he can maintain the power and add 20 walks he won't be the worst first baseman (or DH) in the American League. But this is exactly the sort of trade a team like the Royals shouldn't be making. They've got organizational strength at exactly one spot: 1B/DH. With youngsters Butler and Ka'aihue, those two hitters' spots -- along with Alex Gordon and third base -- are essentially the only positions management should not be worrying about. Relievers are fungible, and Nuez is just the sort of reliever who should be used as trade bait to fill holes on the roster.

That doesn't mean you just give him away.

The moment I learned that Moore had acquired Jacobs, I recalled this passage from an interview Moore gave to Joe Posnanski just a few weeks ago:

"We have to understand the importance of on-base percentage," Moore says, and he repeats those words -- "on-base percentage" -- about 29 times during the interview, which is good to hear. The last five years, the Royals have finished 12th, 13th, 11th, 13th and 13th in on-base percentage, and frankly it's really, really hard to score a lot of runs when you can't get on base (especially when you do not have much power -- and the Royals don't. Plus they play in a big ballpark).

Moore repeated on-base percentage 29 times in one interview. Dayton Moore gets it, finally until his very first significant offseason move, when he acquires an everyday player who will, more than anything, be a drag on the team's on-base percentage. This is exactly the sort of thing the Royals would have done 20 years ago -- those teams were perennially OBP-challenged, too -- which, come to think of it, makes a lot of sense because the man making the moves 20 years ago was John Schuerholz. Moore's mentor before he got his job with the Royals? John Schuerholz.

Moore was supposed to build Schuerholz's winning Braves of the 1990s. But instead he's rebuilding Schuerholz's losing Royals of the late 1980s and early '90s. And we had such high hopes for the young man.
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