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#647128 - 10/30/08 05:03 PM Re: Fire Dayton ***** [Re: JFish26]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
And finally, 28-years old is not a players prime. It's 26 or 27--statistically speaking.
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#647129 - 10/30/08 05:32 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
JFish You're obviously passionate about your position (and the Royals), which I appreciate.

I'm not going to argue about the OBP. You are right in that regard. .299 is terrible. But can his OBP get better? Sure (.299 was the worst of his career). OBP is important, but if you're a Moneyball guy, so is slugging percentage. The Royals are dreadful in both, and at least Jacobs has some pop. It's frustrating for me to watch the Royals string together four singles to get two runs only to have Jermaine Dye (and the rest of the White Sox) follow with a two-run homer the next inning. K.C. needs power, and Jacobs provides that.

Jacobs enters the organization immediately as the Royals' best power hitter, and the Royals got him for a reliever that I don't foresee playing any greater role than as a right-handed reliever (which are a dime a dozen in the Majors).

I also like the thought of Jacobs working with Seitzer. Kevin has a hit-to-all-fields approach much like Jacobs, and I'm hoping that Kevin will be able to get the best out of him.

I'm not lumping you in with all Royals fans, Jfish, but I was surprised how many were upset that Moore was talking about trading Teahen. Last year was his magical 27th year, and he didn't look so magical to me. Still, Moore was taking a lot of heat for talking trade on a guy that many fans still think will come around. It seems like a lot of fans talk both ways (don't trade 27-year-old Teahen, don't trade for 28-year-old Jacobs). Again, just my observation.

If the Royals would have given up Rosa, I would have liked the trade a lot less, but I just don't see the upside with Nunez. I think at worst, K.C. is breaking even on this deal.

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#647130 - 10/30/08 05:43 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jnewell]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

JFish You're obviously passionate about your position (and the Royals), which I appreciate.

I'm not going to argue about the OBP. You are right in that regard. .299 is terrible. But can his OBP get better? Sure (.299 was the worst of his career). OBP is important, but if you're a Moneyball guy, so is slugging percentage. The Royals are dreadful in both, and at least Jacobs has some pop. It's frustrating for me to watch the Royals string together four singles to get two runs only to have Jermaine Dye (and the rest of the White Sox) follow with a two-run homer the next inning. K.C. needs power, and Jacobs provides that.

Jacobs enters the organization immediately as the Royals' best power hitter, and the Royals got him for a reliever that I don't foresee playing any greater role than as a right-handed reliever (which are a dime a dozen in the Majors).

I also like the thought of Jacobs working with Seitzer. Kevin has a hit-to-all-fields approach much like Jacobs, and I'm hoping that Kevin will be able to get the best out of him.

I'm not lumping you in with all Royals fans, Jfish, but I was surprised how many were upset that Moore was talking about trading Teahen. Last year was his magical 27th year, and he didn't look so magical to me. Still, Moore was taking a lot of heat for talking trade on a guy that many fans still think will come around. It seems like a lot of fans talk both ways (don't trade 27-year-old Teahen, don't trade for 28-year-old Jacobs). Again, just my observation.

If the Royals would have given up Rosa, I would have liked the trade a lot less, but I just don't see the upside with Nunez. I think at worst, K.C. is breaking even on this deal.




1. OBP is about four times more important than SLG. Getting on base is the most important single skill an offensive player can possess, and Jacobs is terrible; no way around that.

2. Jacobs does possess impressive power, but there's no reason to think Butler or, in particular, Ka'aihue, can't better his overall offensive value. Kila's numbers and developmental trends suggest he is a force in the making; he has been better than Ryan Howard on a similar developmental curve.

3. Nunez is worth more than this; a reliever who can get AL hitters out has value. I'm not saying he could bring in a better player (overall) than Jacobs, but one of similar individual value at a position of actual need.

4. Teahen has more value because of his defensive flexibility. I would be happy to trade him, under the principle every GM should adopt (and adhere to):

There is no such thing as an untradeable player. If the available return is greater than your asset's worth, pull the trigger.

This, of course, is not a simple equation at all; it must include things like positional scarcity, money, roster flexibility, and (ugh) even chemistry. I'm just saying: I don't have anything against the concept of trading Teahen (or Meche, Greinke, Soria, Gordon, etc.)--if the return is right.
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#647131 - 10/30/08 06:12 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
fiveboltmain23 Offline
Lawrence Legend

Registered: 02/20/06
Quote:

Flatly--you're wrong. Very, very wrong. Jacobs is among the worst players in the major leagues. He is old, and his skills do not profile to age well.




Old? The guy's younger than Ryan Shealy.

I won't even compare the two's careers thus far.

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#647132 - 10/30/08 06:57 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: fiveboltmain23]
Hawk1990 Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/03/06
Loc: Shawnee, KS
Quote:

Old? The guy's younger than Ryan Shealy.

I won't even compare the two's careers thus far.




Well I will. Shealy wasn't healthy in '07, but he was fine in both '06 and '08. Add up his numbers for the Royals in those two years and you get this:

71 G, 266 AB, 41 R, 76 H, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 20 BB, .286 AVG, .343 OBP, .492 SLG.

Now extrapolate that out to the same number of games that Jacobs played this year (141) and you get this:

81 runs, 151 hits, 28 HRs, 111 RBI, 40 BB, .286/.343/.492

That's 14 more runs than Jacobs scored because Shealy gets on base more. That's 33 more hits than Jacobs had. That's only four fewer homers than Jacobs had, despite playing in a harder ballpark. That's 18 more RBI than Jacobs had, because Shealy can drive in runs with hits other than homers. And despite not walking much, that's still 4 more walks than Jacobs compiled. The batting average exceeds the league, the slugging percentage exceeds the league and the on-base percentage is just about dead even with the league. And on top of all that, he's under control longer, he's cheaper, he's a vastly better defensive first baseman and he wouldn't have cost the Royals Leo Nunez.

Given the same number of plate appearances as Jacobs, Shealy is not only just as good, he's actually significantly better than Jacobs. This should be apparent to anyone who follows the sport.

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#647133 - 10/30/08 08:28 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Hawk1990]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

Quote:

Old? The guy's younger than Ryan Shealy.

I won't even compare the two's careers thus far.




Well I will. Shealy wasn't healthy in '07, but he was fine in both '06 and '08. Add up his numbers for the Royals in those two years and you get this:

71 G, 266 AB, 41 R, 76 H, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 20 BB, .286 AVG, .343 OBP, .492 SLG.

Now extrapolate that out to the same number of games that Jacobs played this year (141) and you get this:

81 runs, 151 hits, 28 HRs, 111 RBI, 40 BB, .286/.343/.492

That's 14 more runs than Jacobs scored because Shealy gets on base more. That's 33 more hits than Jacobs had. That's only four fewer homers than Jacobs had, despite playing in a harder ballpark. That's 18 more RBI than Jacobs had, because Shealy can drive in runs with hits other than homers. And despite not walking much, that's still 4 more walks than Jacobs compiled. The batting average exceeds the league, the slugging percentage exceeds the league and the on-base percentage is just about dead even with the league. And on top of all that, he's under control longer, he's cheaper, he's a vastly better defensive first baseman and he wouldn't have cost the Royals Leo Nunez.

Given the same number of plate appearances as Jacobs, Shealy is not only just as good, he's actually significantly better than Jacobs. This should be apparent to anyone who follows the sport.




How dare you bring logic and reason into this discussion?
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#647134 - 10/30/08 08:33 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Hawk1990]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
I think everyone is overreacting to this trade. Seeing how we only gave up Nunez, I don't think we mortgaged our future.
Have we created a larger log jam at 1st base? Maybe. Or maybe Moore isn't finished moving players. The other players in the 1st base log jam haven't proved a thing yet, Jacobs has actually put up some power numbers.
Jacobs will still be relatively cheap. After his arbitration hearing, he'll be making around 3.5 million, guys that have the power numbers like Jacobs has, and the on base percentage that he lacks, go for about 10 million.
Jacobs proved that he can hit for power, he has done it. Last year he hit more homers than all the other players in the log jam have hit combined in their careers.
Jacobs still isn't the long term answer. The answer was drafted this past June, that would be Eric Hosmer.
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#647135 - 10/30/08 09:21 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jammahawk]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
We gave up Nunez. Its not like we traded Hochevar and Moustakas!! So what if we have a jam at 1st, competition in spring will only bring out the top players and that is what you as a manager are truly looking for.

I know the one thing me and Fish agree on, Gload needs to go.
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#647136 - 10/30/08 09:24 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: tyler]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
Quote:

I know the one thing me and Fish agree on, Gload needs to go.




Here, Here.

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#647137 - 10/30/08 10:09 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: jnewell]
Jphog Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 07/14/06
Loc: Lawrence
We could just release Gload, he's worthless. Shealy can play 1B and Jacobs can DH. Butler can go back to AAA and improve his game there. Not that hard to figure out.

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#647138 - 10/30/08 10:20 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Jphog]
crzykufan987 Offline
Big Dipper

Registered: 08/28/05
Honestly, how do we even know what Moore has cooking. You cannot be that upset about the trade. Do we even have a proven first basemen? No, we don't. None of those guys were proven in the very least. Shealy has shown sparks of brilliance, but has thus been very inconsistent. Butler? Still waiting, but we do know he is terrible in the field. Kila? We saw him have what, 20 at-bats? For all we know, Dayton made this trade to set forth an even bigger, better trade. Overall (and hopefully not surprisingly) I'm siding with Newell. There's no reason to jump overboard, as we're yet to find out what else will happen.

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#647139 - 10/30/08 10:30 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Jphog]
Hawk1990 Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/03/06
Loc: Shawnee, KS
Power is important, no one is saying otherwise. Homer totals and run totals are positively correlated, so there is value there.

That said, on-base ability is VASTLY more important than power. The positive correlation between team OBP and team run totals is nearly 1 (better than .90 in the AL this year, to be precise). So while a player like Jacobs, with his .299 OBP, is generally more of a drag on offensive output unless he's in a very specific situation. For instance, if he's in a lineup of otherwise good on-base guys, then his power can be of greater value.

But Jacobs isn't on that kind of team, he's on the Royals, the team that had the whopping total of THREE guys (DeJesus, Gordon, Aviles) get on base at a better than average rate. They will now have matching out machines in the four and five spots of the order in Guillen and Jacobs. On top of that, Jacobs isn't likely to repeat his 32 homer total because he'll be playing his home games in Kauffman Stadium.

Minus any other deals that will bring more OBP ability to the lineup, this deal alone actually makes the Royals' offense worse.

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#647140 - 10/30/08 10:36 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Hawk1990]
Jphog Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 07/14/06
Loc: Lawrence
How does it make it worse? You think Butler is better at this point in his career? OBP doesn't do you much good if nobody has the power to drive in runs from 1B. The royals hit TONS of singles last season, I remember there being lots of games where we would have all singles. It's hard to score runs that way.

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#647141 - 10/30/08 10:50 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: Jphog]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

How does it make it worse? You think Butler is better at this point in his career? OBP doesn't do you much good if nobody has the power to drive in runs from 1B. The royals hit TONS of singles last season, I remember there being lots of games where we would have all singles. It's hard to score runs that way.




First of all--that's just wrong. By far, without a question, the most important thing a baseball player can do in a baseball game is to not make an out. This is paramount. Players who do not get on base are terrible baseball players. Say what you want about Adam Dunn...he strikes out a ton and has a terrible batting average--but he gets on base. Jacobs is like Dunn in that he has prodigious power and strikes out a lot--but he doesn't walk. Ever. He's not a good hitter.

And whoever said he'd be getting about $10MM on the open market: you have no idea what you're talking about. And: $3.5MM is way more money for less offensive production than Butler, Ka'aihue, or Shealy would provide.

People who are saying this is to make way for other moves, please defend your twisted logic. In what world is "trade for a guy you absolutely don't need so you can trade away younger, better, cheaper players" a good idea?

---

And yes, I do understand that, in itself, this is not that big of a deal. However, what the Royals need, more than anything else, is help in the OBP department. You know which was the only AL team to finish with fewer home runs than the Royals? The Twins, who came within one run of the playoffs. Power isn't the issue; walks are.

Moore attempted to fix the Royals' main offensive deficiency by acquiring a player even worse at getting on base than the younger, better, cheaper guys he will replace. The logic behind the move suggests ineptitude of the highest magnitude and should not be tolerated by the fans.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#647142 - 10/30/08 10:59 PM Re: Fire Dayton [Re: JFish26]
Jphog Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 07/14/06
Loc: Lawrence
How about the Angels who had a team OBP of .330 only 10 points higher than the royals. They won 100 games. You know why? Because their ERA was 3.99. The royals? 4.48

I think it is silly to put all the focus on OBP. I'd rather look at OPS if anything.

Oh and I think Moore might know a thing or two about baseball. To say that he should be fired because he traded fragile Nunez for a power hitter is ridiculous.


Edited by Jphog (10/30/08 11:00 PM)

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