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#237404 - 11/14/07 10:31 AM RECAP & RATINGS: Kansas vs UMKC
webprince Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 12/07/04
Loc: California
Catching up slowly but surely. Here's my recap of the UMKC game. Next up, I'll update my dashboard with the overall ratings to date. There won't be a Washburn preview because the stats I like to use aren't available for them. I will, however, put a recap for that game. Regardless of opponent, I know I'm not the only one who likes to see how our players rate after every performance.

http://www.sportsandnumbers.com/game-recaps-for-2007-08/recap-umkc-at-kansas.html

Edit: No MVP analysis yet since multiple regression won't work with so few games played.


Edited by webprince (11/14/07 11:36 AM)
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#237405 - 11/14/07 11:14 AM Re: RECAP & RATINGS: Kansas vs UMKC [Re: webprince]
DrPepper Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/18/03
Loc: Buffalo, NY
A foul counts as a turnover. Right? So is the 'no' loss of possession factored in when it is a defensive foul? I am guessing not since box scores do not keep track of fouls based on offensive or defensive. Or do the fouls count differently based on if the opposition is in the bonus or not? I guess it shouldn't, but we tend to value game winning shots more than points scored at any other time period in the game. Well then, if you foul Shaq (who is fouled is not in the box score either) in the bonus, then it ought to count as a steal, right?

I am not looking for fault. Rather, I am just warming up and looking forward to the insight the stats will tell us this season.

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#237406 - 11/14/07 11:43 AM Re: RECAP & RATINGS: Kansas vs UMKC [Re: DrPepper]
webprince Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 12/07/04
Loc: California
Always glad when you ask questions, DrPepper. Doesn't show intent to criticize ... imo, it shows interest, which is great.

I don't count a foul as a turnover per se. Each game has a different value for a foul, and they're different for each team. For example, I look at the game to see how many free throws were attempted and made as a result of KU's 16 fouls against UMKC. That shows me the probability that any foul resulted in a free throw attempt and make/miss. Depending on whether UMKC shot well from the FT line, that makes the penalty for a KU foul more/less. It's not perfect, since it can't accurately capture whether Arthur's fouls, for example, all led to FT attempts and maybe none of Collins' did. But it's way better than assigning a random value to a foul and stick with it for every game and every team.
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