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#2047282 - 03/09/20 11:43 AM Recession 2020
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
I figured we should have a thread on this. I've been watching the markets since 2019, wondering when something will prick the inflated stock market bubble. With oil and almost everything else tumbling today (and the last 2 weeks), I think we're finally at the beginning of a long overdue recession.

One thing people need to realize is that home prices have not recovered to 2007 levels -- they were in a bubble in 2007, just like they are now. Home prices will correct to the mean average adjusted for inflation, but it will take time (2-3 years likely). If you're in the market for a home in the bubble cities, do not buy until 2021 or 2022 if you can hold off. However, if you live in an area where the bubble is not so high, buying a home might be fine. Interest rates are going even lower, but it's still a rare time to take advantage of these 30 year lows.

Speaking of interest rates, the Fed is going to cut them back to zero. They are also going to print a shitload of money, which will devalue the dollar. Might not be a bad time to invest in some gold if you can.

People are going to blame this on the virus, but most of it has nothing to do with that. We never had a real recovery after 2008. All the government did was inflate the bubble even bigger by QE and lowering interest rates.
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#2047284 - 03/09/20 12:13 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
kellyfenton Online   content
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 04/19/03
You know what might work. Something like a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut, primarily for the wealthy that will trickle down to the middle class.

wait ... I'm being told that's already been done.
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#2047286 - 03/09/20 12:30 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
To be fair, my post wasn't blaming one side. I think both are responsible for this mess that has accumulated over the years and decades.

But right, tax cuts didn't really work out like they had said they would. A lot of that wealth in the stock market is just air.


Edited by lobster (03/09/20 12:31 PM)
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#2047287 - 03/09/20 12:33 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
Also, the problem for our president is that he has claimed ownership of this economy. He is claiming it's the "greatest economy ever..." He should have stuck to his original claims on the campaign trail when he was talking about how inflated our economy is. For this reason alone, he might lose the election. I don't have a crystal ball, so I'll just say he might lose because of this.
_________________________
"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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#2047298 - 03/09/20 06:24 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
_________________________
"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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#2047360 - 03/11/20 09:29 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
Bear market now. This is just getting started.

Anyone interested in real estate should watch this video. Keep in mind that not all areas are in an extreme bubble right now.


Edited by lobster (03/11/20 09:30 PM)
_________________________
"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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#2047535 - 03/15/20 05:23 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
Interest rates back to zero. Boom.
_________________________
"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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#2047536 - 03/15/20 05:37 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
kellyfenton Online   content
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 04/19/03
I don’t understand economics at all but does it make sense to drop interest rates when the issue isn’t the underlying economy but a very specific issue that would seem impervious to fiscal stimulus?
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#2047537 - 03/15/20 05:48 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
With an interest rate at 0 what is the incentive for lenders to lend?
I can see how that might inspire some investment for those interested in hoping to buy low, but that's what they call gambling.
Shudder...
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"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy





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#2047539 - 03/15/20 06:15 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: kellyfenton]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
Originally Posted By: kellyfenton
I don’t understand economics at all but does it make sense to drop interest rates when the issue isn’t the underlying economy but a very specific issue that would seem impervious to fiscal stimulus?


Without going into too much detail, the problem is that there have been many underlying problems in the US and world economy. The economy was basically like a human with a very weak immune system. We never had a real recover since 2008, despite what people say. All our government did was lower rates, which allowed things to continue for several years.
_________________________
"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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#2047540 - 03/15/20 06:28 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: appyhawk]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
Originally Posted By: appyhawk
With an interest rate at 0 what is the incentive for lenders to lend?
I can see how that might inspire some investment for those interested in hoping to buy low, but that's what they call gambling.
Shudder...


They are also considering negative interest rates, which would mean that people who keep their money in the bank would be charged, but borrowers would be paid to borrow. They do this in Japan, but I hope it doesn't happen here. Long term, I think interest rates will rise, especially as home prices come down 30-40% in the bubble markets. We're at 30-year lows right now, which is good if you live in some areas, but it has allowed the real estate bubble to rise so high.

The value of the dollar is another issue that few are talking about right now. It's concerning because our government just vowed to print billions.


Edited by lobster (03/15/20 06:28 PM)
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"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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#2047541 - 03/15/20 07:11 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
That all sounds very much like business designed to fail. The one good sounding thing about it is with 0 interest legalized slavery is virtually eliminated.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy





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#2047542 - 03/15/20 09:23 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
DCHawk1 Offline
Proudly Derivative.

Registered: 01/29/07
Loc: District of Columbia
Feeling very Lehman-y tonight.

Only worse.
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#2047543 - 03/15/20 09:48 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: DCHawk1]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
Originally Posted By: DCHawk1
Feeling very Lehman-y tonight.

Only worse.


I wanted a housing correction, and I knew a recession was going to come. However, this is not how I wanted it to happen. Be careful what you wish for, as they say. I think a lot of people are seriously underestimating how bad this recession could be, and for how long.
_________________________
"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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#2047550 - 03/16/20 11:17 PM Re: Recession 2020 [Re: lobster]
lobster Offline
You feel the pinch?

Registered: 05/02/07
Loc: DCHawk's basement.
Appy, I forgot to mention that the banks do not have to follow the Feds rates. In fact, it's a high probably that they will rise in the coming years and decades. If the economy is hurting anyway, they might not have anything more to lose by raising rates. Rates have been at 30 year lows and the laws of probably tell us that they are likely to rise for the coming years. If they can't raise their rates, they have no desire to lend.
_________________________
"Hate always comes from beneath, and people never get jealous of losers."

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