Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >
Topic Options
Rate This Topic
#1704119 - 04/29/12 10:24 AM KENTUCKY DERBY
Anonymous
Unregistered

Any horse racing fans here ? Any thoughts on the upcoming Kentucky Derby?

I'm waiting on the final draw, but as of this moment I'm leaning toward Union Rags.





KentuckyDerby.com

DRF Derby Info


Road to the Triple Crown

Derby Contenters

Union Rags Story

Top
#1704120 - 04/29/12 12:49 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
scubajayhawk Offline
Junior Jayhawk

Registered: 02/28/07
Loc: ...in a van down by the river
one of my ol' KU buddies is on the ownership team for Dullahan. I'm going to bet Dullahan, not because of the horse or the prior friendship (I haven't spoken to the guy in 10 years or more). i'm betting Dullahan becaue of the jockey: Kent Desormeaux. always bet the jockey.

Top
#1704121 - 04/29/12 12:59 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: scubajayhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

One of the keys to evaluating the Derby is the Juvenile Chart:
BC Juvenile

Top
#1704122 - 04/30/12 07:51 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
LisaT Offline
Max Falkenstein

Registered: 03/11/07
Take Charge Indy for me!
_________________________
Summer of Love

Top
#1704123 - 04/30/12 08:58 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LisaT]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Great stuff everyone!

PPs provide indispensable info in making your choice because they can reveal trends.
There are trends in individual horse performance, there are trends for individual tracks, and there are trends to individual race results.
There are a lot of awfully nice horses in this race, including one who is undefeated. Undefeated is a trend that cannot be overlooked.
Another trend is that no horse in 130+ years has won the Derby without having run as a juvenile (2yr old). Bedemeister will attempt to buck that trend and appears to have every necessary talent to do just that. Still, the race trend cannot be overlooked. Here's a gravel in the gear of that trend; this year is an unusual year seasonally (warmest mean temps in well over 100 yrs). In fact what makes this year different coincides nearly the same in starting date and longevity as said race trend. Is that a trend? I'm just crazy enough to call it an angle. Bodemeister gets consideration from me as a winner.
Gemologist has not been beaten and gets serious consideration from me.
I love Creative Cause, just don't know he can blister the distance. but I'll sure have a tough time picking against him in the Preakness.
Of those 3 I'll take whichever shows up at the gate with the longest odds.

You can download a very impressive FREE Derby Preview at: http://www.xpressbet.com/KentuckyDerby

If nothing else it makes a nice souvenir.


Edited by appyhawk (04/30/12 09:20 AM)
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704124 - 04/30/12 07:57 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
PhogHead Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 12/13/04
Loc: Bluegrass
I took Take Charge Indy in the first future pool at about 45-1 so I hope he wins because of that bet. I liked his middle move in the Breeders Cup Juvenile figuring he had room to improve off of a fifth place finish.
I like a horse that is able to avoid traffic problems in the race like everyone else, so I like a horse that can make it to the first turn that has good position. As much traffic problems as there are a horse who can maneuver around problems and not lose speed is also a good angle.
Right now it is so hard to figure out among the horses with long odds who could be sitting on a big race. I liked the way Sabercat finished in the Arkansas derby.

I'll wait until post positions are drawn Wed. to make a final decision. I don't think a horse has won the Derby from the 1 hole since 1886 so throw that one out, as well as the two and three. the rail is so hard to negociate from the starting gate at CD.

As of today I will probably play a ten cent super with eight horses for $168

Bodemeister
Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best or I'll Have Another
Dullahan
El Padrino or Sabercat
Gemologist
Take Charge Indy
Union Rags


Most likely Union Rags will be around 5-1 at post, which is a pretty good value. I watched him work at Keeneland on April 20 and you can throw out the FD he is as legit as the come.
_________________________
"Success" Hiring someone to mow the lawn while you play golf for exercise.

Top
#1704125 - 04/30/12 08:45 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: PhogHead]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Great take.
In addition to the draw I will pay attention to potential weather/track conditions. El Padrino seems to excel on an off track. Not that he's a scam on a good one...great horse and probably to offer a good price.
This race has so many really good horses. Good chance to make a killing for whoever can pick the order.
I think you're right that trip will largely determine the winner. So many entrants the Derby is a crapshoot.
I'll wait til the last minute to make my play. Can't make up my mind. Heh.

Keeneland one of my favorite tracks. Wish I could have been there with you.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704126 - 04/30/12 10:54 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Prep Race Replays

Interesting Spread Sheet

Herd Dynamics and Horse Psychology

I too am waiting on the draw ...... At this point, I'm using Dullahan and Union Rags, and will toss in a long shot like Alpha if he draws wide. I'll be using Creative Cause everywhere but first.

The more replay I watch, the more my eyeballs tell me to play Dullahan. Although I don't like that his success has been on synthetic and turf, he did finish well in the BC Juvenile after a less than spectacular start.

Dullahan reminds me of Animal Kingdom, and we know how that worked out last year.

Again, the draw is critical for so many horses in this field, so selections as of now are obviously premature, but ... to play this race you have to be either for or against Bodemeister. I am against.

I just can't see anyone on the front end winning this race ... BUT .. the last time I thought that ... friggin War Emblem jogged around the track !!

I despise playing a horse because I am afraid of him, and Bodemeister fits that tag. I can see keying him and he gets burned up in a duel and finishes 12th, or I can see leaving him out and he's allowed to set slow fractions then draw off ....

The Derby - the world's greatest puzzle!!

Top
#1704127 - 05/01/12 08:50 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
I considered Animal Kingdom to be an anomoly, but you could make the case 4 of the last ten have been the same.
Bode is a threat. Just my suspicion he is the threat that will set up the winner.
Dullahan is a compelling prospect picking up support from quite a few experts.
Too much unknown for me to think I have a handle yet on how it will end up going. The one thing I know is if I could own any horse in this race it would be Creative Cause.

Handicapping horses just may be the greatest (and most challenging?) game in the world. I know for sure when you're connected to one there's nothing that compares.

Good stuff Phogified.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704128 - 05/01/12 10:58 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
LEG Offline
Junior Jayhawk

Registered: 04/14/12
PhogHead, there is no 10 cent superfecta wagering on the Derbyshire. I like Union Rags, Hansen, and Gemology.

Top
#1704129 - 05/01/12 04:24 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LEG]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Top
#1704130 - 05/01/12 06:30 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
No one seems to be giving Gemologist much due.
No one has beaten him.
This is why I pay as much attention to video as I do to stats.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704131 - 05/02/12 07:48 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
LisaT Offline
Max Falkenstein

Registered: 03/11/07
do you ever look at the dosage index? That is how I pick
_________________________
Summer of Love

Top
#1704132 - 05/02/12 08:02 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: scubajayhawk]
Hawklin Offline
Justin Ray Giddens

Registered: 03/27/05
Quote:

one of my ol' KU buddies is on the ownership team for Dullahan. I'm going to bet Dullahan, not because of the horse or the prior friendship (I haven't spoken to the guy in 10 years or more). i'm betting Dullahan becaue of the jockey: Kent Desormeaux. always bet the jockey.





I know the owner as well. But must be a Kansas connection of the group... because she / he (my friend) are not KU.
_________________________
I'd sooner, except the penalties, kill a man than a hawk.

Top
#1704133 - 05/02/12 08:26 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LisaT]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Quote:

do you ever look at the dosage index? That is how I pick




Absolutely. In fact I probably rely on it more than I should.
I don't always let dosage determine my pick for the winner of a given race but I ALWAYS prioritize it for breeding or buying.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704134 - 05/02/12 10:06 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I like Dullahan quite a bit.

So much speed in the race...I just don't see a frontrunner winning it.

Top
#1704135 - 05/02/12 11:44 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
"I just don't see a frontrunner winning it."
Me too.
But there are some stalkers of sufficient quality one of them could hold off the closers.
I'm a sucker for closers. That style thrills the heck out of me more than any other. That's why I don't much care for races under 8F.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704136 - 05/02/12 05:50 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

1. Daddy Long Legs
2. Optimizer
3. Take Charge Indy
4. Union Rags
5. Dullahan
6. Bodemeister
7. Rousing Sermon
8. Creative Cause
9. Trinniberg
10. Daddy Knows Best
11. Alpha
12. Perspective
13. Went The Day Well
14. Hansen
15. Gemologist
16. El Padrino
17. Done Talking
18. Sabercat
19. I'll Have Another
20. Liaison

Top
#1704137 - 05/02/12 06:35 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Looks to me like none of the principals has a legit gripe considering the 20 horse field.
20 is too many.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704138 - 05/02/12 06:48 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

1. Daddy Long Legs ~~~> NO
2. Optimizer ~~~~> NO
3. Take Charge Indy ~~> pace-factor, Borel and the rail, hmmmm
4. Union Rags ~~> YES
5. Dullahan ~~~~> HELL YES
6. Bodemeister @%## !!! GRRRRR YES, NO, MAYBE GRRRRRR !#%@##!!
7. Rousing Sermon ~~> NO
8. Creative Cause ~~~> pace factor, NO
9. Trinniberg ~~> HELL NO
10. Daddy Knows Best ~~~> NO
11. Alpha ~~~> UNSURE as of now
12. Perspective ~~~> Long Shot 4th
13. Went The Day Well ~~~> Long Shot 4th
14. Hansen ~~~~> NO
15. Gemologist ~~~~> YES
16. El Padrino ~~~> bottom of exotics if raining
17. Done Talking ~~~> NO
18. Sabercat ~~~~> NO
19. I'll Have Another ~~~~> bottom of exotics
20. Liaison ~~~~> HELL NO

Top
#1704139 - 05/02/12 06:54 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Like your analysis for the most part Phog.

I'm looking at keying Union Rags and Dullahan.

Couple of longer shots I might take a flyer on:

Daddy Knows Best
Went The Day Well

Top
#1704140 - 05/02/12 07:53 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Here ya go Lisa T.
.56 down to .48 CD is considered optimium for 1 1/4 mile.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-dosage-and-dual-qualifiers


Horse

Dosage profile

Dosage Index

Center of distribution




Alpha

7-6-19-4-0

1.67

0.44



Bodemeister

9-9-12-0-2

3.00

0.72



Creative Cause

3-2-23-0-0

1.43

0.29



Daddy Long Legs

11-1-3-3-0

3.00

1.11



Daddy Nose Best

5-1-5-1-0

2.43

0.83



Done Talking

10-6-10-2-2

2.33

0.67



Dullahan

8-8-10-0-0

4.20

0.92



El Padrino

11-5-20-0-0

2.60

0.75



Gemologist

12-2-13-1-0

2.73

0.89



Hansen

6-5-6-1-0

3.50

0.89



I'll Have Another

2-4-7-1-0

2.11

0.50



Liaison

1-4-5-0-0

3.00

0.60



Optimizer

10-9-17-0-0

3.24


0.81



Prospective

8-5-11-0-0

3.36


0.88



Rousing Sermon

5-3-10-0-0

2.60

0.72



Sabercat

10-4-13-0-1

2.73

0.79



Take Charge Indy

6-13-19-0-0

3.00

0.66



Trinniberg

3-0-3-0-0

3.00

1.00



Union Rags

9-1-10-2-0

2.14

0.77



Went the Day Well

4-1-11-0-0

1.91

0.56


By dosage best choices would be from the entrants Alpha, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Went the Day Well. Look at the Classic score tallied by Creative Cause, a staggering 23.
According to his breeding Cause is a lock for the Belmont.
Derby winner strictly by dosage...Went the Day Well.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704141 - 05/02/12 08:44 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Dosage Fans ... may I present you with an orgasmic opportunity ....


Derby Dosage - All Time

Dosage Stats and more Stats.

Top
#1704142 - 05/02/12 09:01 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
The trend numbers will always rise with time as there is a continuous stream of new Chefs contributing.
However, if the composite shows anything it is that you cannot rely on dosage to consistantly pick the winner of a given race.
I believe only 4 times in history has a dual qualifyer won the Derby.

You're right though. That page brings back a flood of memories.
Check out Carry Back and Tim Tam. Incredible numbers.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704143 - 05/02/12 09:04 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Fascinating stuff isn't it Appy!

I always do this ... research the current Derby then spend the majority of my time digging the history lessons of this fantastic race!!

Top
#1704144 - 05/02/12 10:15 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Then there is Secretariat. His numbers give little clue that he could win one, let alone dominate all three.

Just for fun, here are the profiles of 3 of my horses.
SH (filly)
12-4-11-2-1
2.53
.80

SNM
4-2-8-0-0
2.5
.71

Waka
9-4--9-0-0
3.89
1.00
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704145 - 05/02/12 10:38 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
Anonymous
Unregistered

I figured these Klein Speed Points for the Derby. The lower the number, the more early speed a horse has. The numbers indicate where a horse is typically placed in a race. It can also be very handy in determining how hot, or contested, the pace can and will be. This Derby is NOT lacking in front-runners.

1.------------------------------------124
2.-----------------------------155
3.----------------------------------------------------------------------> -2
4. -------------------------------------------------79
5.--236
6.----------------------------------------------------------------------------> -33
7.-------------183
8.-------------------------------------------113
9.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------> -98
10.--------------------------159
11.----------------------------------------------107
12.-------------------------------------142
13.-------------------------------------------------------63
14.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------> -35
15.--------------------------------------------------------------------> -6
16.-------------------------------------------------------62
17.------------------179
18.------215
19.---------------------------------------------------------------35
20.-------------------------------------------115

OKAY ... here goes an amateur-hack handicappers take on the Derby so far....

On paper, (9) Trinniberg will set the pace as the speed of the speed. Probably go a Balto Star-ish 1:09 and change for 6 panels then be done, or he may last a smidge longer if allowed to go, but he is zero threat to steal this race.

(14) Hansen is a bona-fide front-runner and should break well and stalk or vie for command using precious energy early. Also don't think he will be around at the end.

(6) Bodemeister 108, the field's highest BSF in the field, although that figure was set with ideal conditions - lone speed, able to relax, uncontested to draw off. Did NOT race as a 2 year old. Baffert needs no introduction. This horse will be no surprise to me if he finishes anywhere between 1 and 12. I will use him defensively.

(15) Gemologist - wise-guy horse with great trainer. Game in last victory but lightly raced. Very well-drawn for a clean stalking trip. Exotic player.

(3) Take Charge Indy - poorly drawn inside the real speeds, but he has Calvin the Borail to guide him which will also cut your price. Don't see him hitting the board and I will take a stand against.

(19) I'll Have Another likes to stalk. Lightly raced, definite toss if it rains. A lot of people's wise-guy horse. I don't think he has the foundation to hit the board.

(13) Went the Day Well, another stalker who can get position. Connections need no introduction, but I don't care for this one.

(16) El Padrino - upgrade if it rains. Stalker with declining Beyers. Florida Derby was a REAL clunker.

(4) Union Rags, drawn okay if he can avoid trouble early and not get cut off by all the speeds to his outside. I like him, but he will have to avoid a troubled trip from here. Wish he was further out

(11) Alpha - has had training issues, but if you like Gemologist you must like this one. Beyers are climbing and this is an interesting long shot to hit the exotics.

(8) Creative Cause - you can't play them all, and I may or may not use this one. Reports are sketchy, but he's ran some good ones. Muddies the picture for me. Probably a defensive use in the exotics.

(20) Liaison - Baffert's B-team, tossing.

(1) Daddy Long Legs - 1-hole is the kiss of death, and he was soundly trounced by these in the BC Juvy. Don't like.

(12) Prospective - certainly a cut below these others.

(2) Optimizer - Lukas returns with a closer. Trounced in the Arky Derby. Not for me anywhere.

(10) Daddy Nose Best - All out to win the Sunland Derby, runner-up was trounced in the Arkansas Derby. Hard to like here, but maybe a bomb for the bottom of the superfecta.

(17) Done Talking - yes, he is. Toss.

(7) Rousing Sermon - I'm not feeling the faith. Toss.

(18) Sabercat - Interesting 3rd in the Arkansas Derby but too slow. Toss.

(5) Dullahan - If pace makes the race, this guy has a real shot. Now, I have concerns about his best efforts being on turf and poly, but he ran okay in the BC Juvy, which is shorter than he wants to run. His Bluegrass was visually impressive, and according to his trainer, Churchill is his home base where he trains frequently. He's a dead-nut closer who should have every chance to win this race, especially if they go bonkers up front and the race falls apart. From post 5 he's going to have to pass every horse in this field. Good jockey, good running style, excellent chance.

I've not confirmed any selections as of yet, but I am certainly narrowing it down. Should be a great race by this excellent crop of 3 year olds.

Ohhhh, and if you read this far, you win a free ice cream cone

Top
#1704146 - 05/03/12 12:52 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Choc chip in french vanilla for me!

Just as important and as tough to handicap as the Derby is the Oaks tomorrow. Who will win that one?
I have 5 fillies circled but danged if I can narrow them down to a winner. Wheels are expensive.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704147 - 05/03/12 12:59 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Fantastic analysis Phog.

Thanks for the great information...and it makes me feel good about my Dullahan selection.

But the Derby is always such a crapshoot...who knows what will happen.

Picked Nehro last year....he finished a solid 2nd (had zero interest in Animal Kingdom tho).

Good card tomorrow and Saturday. Lots of quality betting races....looking forward to it!

Top
#1704148 - 05/03/12 02:37 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
http://www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com...-positions-odds


THE OAKS.
PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

ML



1

On Fire Baby

J. Johnson

G. Hartlage

4/1



2

Grace Hall

J. Castellano

A. Dutrow

5/2



3

Summer Applause

G. Gomez

B. Calhoun

15/1



4

Eden's Moon

M. Garcia

B. Baffert

12/1



5

Hard Not to Like

R. Albarado

G. Cox

20/1



6

Broadway's Alibi

J. Velazquez

T. Pletcher

4/1



7

Sacristy

M. Smith

W. Catalano

50/1



8

Jemina's Pearl

J. Talamo

B. Baffert

10/1



9

Believe You Can

R. Napravnik

L. Jones

10/1



10

And Why Not

J. Leparoux

M. Matz

15/1



11

Karlovy Vary

J. Graham

R. Arnold

20/1



12

Colonial Express

C. Nakatani

D.W. Lukas

50/1



13

Amie's Dini

J. Court

R. Mouquett

10/1



14

Yara

J. Castanon

J. Garofollo

30/1



15 AE

Oaks Lily

TBD

T. Hill

50/1


The fillies I'm looking at are #2 Grace Hall (5-2), #1 On Fire Baby (4-1), #9 Believe You Can ( 10-1), #3 Summer Applause (15-1), and #10 And Why Not (15-1).

I don't like the inside draws for 1-3. That leaves me with Believe You Can or And Why Not to win.
Rosie riding Believe You Can wins my coin toss, but I might just take a hedge with #10.
I'd be spitting in the river trying to make a cold pick exotic and can't afford to try buying the race.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704149 - 05/03/12 03:45 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
LisaT Offline
Max Falkenstein

Registered: 03/11/07
Great stuff guys, thanks for posting, saves me some time. I am still going with Take Charge Indy....book it.
_________________________
Summer of Love

Top
#1704150 - 05/03/12 03:58 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LisaT]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
I think we both need to get lucky.
I've decided to go with a hunch play, El Padrino!
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704151 - 05/03/12 04:20 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
HunterThompson Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 10/23/06
Loc: Woody Creek, CO
Gawd, if owned horses, I'd name them Sarah Jessica Parker and John Elway.
_________________________
"This will make us the envy of the Big 12." --Rand Berney (somebody from statie)

Top
#1704152 - 05/03/12 04:25 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: HunterThompson]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Don't forget Shannon Sharpe

Top
#1704153 - 05/04/12 09:19 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Outstanding Summary Sheet:

Derby Summary Sheet

Top
#1704154 - 05/04/12 09:22 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
DrPepper Offline
US Marshal, Kansas Territory

Registered: 09/18/03
Loc: Buffalo, NY
1.Gemologist
2.Henson

Nothing fancy. Contenders without terrible slots. I am fascinated by the white horse (Henson) so there might be some bias there. With Gemologist, I like the name.

Top
#1704155 - 05/04/12 10:23 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
LisaT Offline
Max Falkenstein

Registered: 03/11/07
Quote:

I think we both need to get lucky.
I've decided to go with a hunch play, El Padrino!




Good luck Appy!
_________________________
Summer of Love

Top
#1704156 - 05/04/12 11:30 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LisaT]
Anonymous
Unregistered

This will be a great race by a great field. Each time you scour over past performances, prep-race replays, expert opinions and analysis, you can come up with even more valid reasons to include or exclude certain horses.

Betting this race always involves calculated guessing. 20 three-year-olds who've never been this distance under these conditions, and usually the best horse does not win. It comes down to trips, which is often affected by post position and the mightiest of unknowns: racing luck.

I can make a solid case for about 10 of these horses, but you'd have to be a millionaire to bet all those combinations.

All that said, here goes:

Dullahan is still my top choice, yet a lukewarm selection. He has to have SO many things go his way, but the one thing he needs favors him the most - a contested pace. Dullahan will be running at the end of the race, I cannot feel this way about ANY of the front runners.

I will combo Dullahan as my closer, Union Rags as my stalker and hopeful finisher, Bodemeister because he's a threat in all the slots, and Creative Cause because I like his style and grit.

$24 for an exacta box, using the above 4.
$24 for a trifecta box, using the above 4.
$20 WPS on Dullahan, $100 Show on Dullahan.

I will tinker with the superfecta, but not much because it's a one-dollar base instead of a dime-base.

Good luck to everyone on a day that it's much better to be lucky than good !!

Top
#1704157 - 05/04/12 12:44 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Oaks TODAY.
Just as good a race as the Derby but only 14 entrants.
Got it figured?
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704158 - 05/04/12 12:48 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
jhawks99 Offline
Defense

Registered: 12/03/05
Loc: Rebounds
Quote:

Oaks TODAY.
Just as good a race as the Derby but only 14 entrants.
Got it figured?




I don't know doodlie about horse racin, but the folks I work with here in Lexington much prefer The Oaks to The Derby.
_________________________
Defense. Rebounds.

Top
#1704159 - 05/04/12 01:02 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: jhawks99]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Bad start to Kentucky Oaks day.

Plum Pretty ran a dud in the 6th.

In the Oaks, I've got Grace Hall keyed with with 1-3-8-9-13 in exactas and tris.

Good luck.

Top
#1704160 - 05/04/12 02:23 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Quote:

Oaks TODAY.
Just as good a race as the Derby but only 14 entrants.
Got it figured?




Gotta work, can't play. Ughhh !

Top
#1704161 - 05/04/12 04:06 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Uh oh.
Under caution and clearing the infield at CD. They're already speculating it could be enough to make for a sloppy track tomorrow.
Mudder in th Oaks?

Even if he somehow wins late money will kill my El Padrino odds. So much for trying to be sly. I'll hedge with a speed horse off the rail...dumdedumdedum...
Bodemeister to break the curse!
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704162 - 05/04/12 05:41 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
OAKS was THRILLING!
Especially if you picked Believe You Can.

29.60@2
Rosie rules.

Late to do chores.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704163 - 05/04/12 06:03 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Ugh....so frustrating.

Grace Hall finishes 2nd...I hit the world

Between that and missing the tri in the 8th by 3/4 of a length (which paid over $700)...it was a rough Kentucky Oaks Day

Top
#1704164 - 05/04/12 06:40 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Sorry for you pal. Better luck next time.

Winning the Oaks ends my system. Therefore I start over, which changes my Derby play.
Back to first play wager.
Scratching my El Padrino/Bodemeister idea.
Going with my favorite horse in the race.
Will play Creative Cause to win (system restart) and a few bucks of todays winnings on a Creative Cause/Gemologist exacta wheel for a possible nice bonus.

How did you make out today phoghead?
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704165 - 05/04/12 06:49 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
That's racing for ya....I'll be back at it tomorrow full steam ahead.

Congrats on the Oaks win.

Good luck to everybody in the Derby.

Looking at Dullahan/Union Rags/Creative Cause/Gemologist/Went the Day Well/Daddy Knows Best combination of some sort that I'll figure out tomorrow and more than likely screw up LOL.

Top
#1704166 - 05/05/12 11:17 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Can't shake the bug. Gonna open an additional system (I'll call it the "hunch" system) and make a small El Padrino play.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704167 - 05/05/12 04:25 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Shirley Offline
Pelvic Missionary

Registered: 03/17/05
OK, I think we can all agree we hope Hansen runs the wrong way out of the gate.
_________________________
I come from a long line of people who convinced others to sleep with them.

Top
#1704168 - 05/05/12 05:22 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: Shirley]
jhawks99 Offline
Defense

Registered: 12/03/05
Loc: Rebounds
Why do you hate white horses, Shirley?
_________________________
Defense. Rebounds.

Top
#1704169 - 05/05/12 06:28 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: jhawks99]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Had the 2nd and 3rd place horses.....liked I'll Have Another, but I hated the post, and 1st time jockey on board scared me off.

Despite running 2nd...I was more impressed with Bodemeister than I was the winner. Those fractions were just ridiculous, and to hang in there (I thought at the head of the stretch he would be an easy winner) says a lot about the horse.

He'll win the Preakness going away.


Edited by christgs80 (05/05/12 06:29 PM)

Top
#1704170 - 05/05/12 06:40 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Agreed on Bode, but not sold on him running away with the Preakness. He wasn't alone running those fractions. I thought at the head of the stretch he would collapse! Ha.
Man oh man there's a lot of class in this year's class!
I liked the run from Cause who got pinched out of the gate and had a lot of traffic to fight through. Made a nice stretch run but had used too much on the trip. I lost track of Gem late on the backstretch.
Derby cost me $42, Oaks $20. Ended + $234. I'll take that for Pimlico fun.

2012 Kentucky Derby order of finish

1. Ill Have Another
2 .Bodemeister
3. Dullahan
4. Went the Day Well
5. Creative Cause
6. Liaison
7. Union Rags
8. Rousing Sermon
9. Hansen
10. Daddy Nose Best
11. Optimizer
12. Alpha
13. El Padrino
14. Done Talking
15. Sabercat
16. Gemologist
17. Trinniberg
18. Prospective
19. Take Charge Indy
20. Daddy Long Legs


Edited by appyhawk (05/05/12 08:10 PM)
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704171 - 05/05/12 08:12 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
and_one Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 06/19/09
Loc: Colorado
I know diddly about horses, but I'll Have Another looked small compared to most of the other horses, kinda Seabiscuit'esque @ 15 hands?

Top
#1704172 - 05/05/12 09:08 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: and_one]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
He sure ran big at the end. I don't know how tall he is.
Bode was really impressive, but the little red horse ran the same distance faster and came through traffic to do it. That's kind of a sobering thought to speed freaks.

I'll say this for Bode, if today was the Preakness he won it.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704173 - 05/05/12 09:36 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Back home after a fun, but disappointing day at the simulcast/track.

It became apparent as soon as the track was labeled as "fast", after the first race, that front-speed was going well. I wanted to play Dullahan in all the slots, but wisely placed the larger portion of my Derby's wager on him to show.

I had Bode and Dullahan in the right spots in the exotics, but did not play I'll Have Another on top. I just didn't think he had the experience, and a rookie jockey made me convince myself to play him 4th only in the superfecta.

Bode absolutely ran his eyeballs out .. 1:09 and change and was STILL there at the wire !! Unreal, when you look at the history of this race.

Union Rags, a horrific trip, which was my fear given his post.

Oh well .... five days of research goes down the drain in 2 minutes, ha. Congrats to anyone who had this race - you deserved it !

Top
Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >

Preview