Page 2 of 4 < 1 2 3 4 >
Topic Options
Rate This Topic
#1704134 - 05/02/12 10:06 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I like Dullahan quite a bit.

So much speed in the race...I just don't see a frontrunner winning it.

Top
#1704135 - 05/02/12 11:44 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
"I just don't see a frontrunner winning it."
Me too.
But there are some stalkers of sufficient quality one of them could hold off the closers.
I'm a sucker for closers. That style thrills the heck out of me more than any other. That's why I don't much care for races under 8F.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704136 - 05/02/12 05:50 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

1. Daddy Long Legs
2. Optimizer
3. Take Charge Indy
4. Union Rags
5. Dullahan
6. Bodemeister
7. Rousing Sermon
8. Creative Cause
9. Trinniberg
10. Daddy Knows Best
11. Alpha
12. Perspective
13. Went The Day Well
14. Hansen
15. Gemologist
16. El Padrino
17. Done Talking
18. Sabercat
19. I'll Have Another
20. Liaison

Top
#1704137 - 05/02/12 06:35 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Looks to me like none of the principals has a legit gripe considering the 20 horse field.
20 is too many.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704138 - 05/02/12 06:48 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

1. Daddy Long Legs ~~~> NO
2. Optimizer ~~~~> NO
3. Take Charge Indy ~~> pace-factor, Borel and the rail, hmmmm
4. Union Rags ~~> YES
5. Dullahan ~~~~> HELL YES
6. Bodemeister @%## !!! GRRRRR YES, NO, MAYBE GRRRRRR !#%@##!!
7. Rousing Sermon ~~> NO
8. Creative Cause ~~~> pace factor, NO
9. Trinniberg ~~> HELL NO
10. Daddy Knows Best ~~~> NO
11. Alpha ~~~> UNSURE as of now
12. Perspective ~~~> Long Shot 4th
13. Went The Day Well ~~~> Long Shot 4th
14. Hansen ~~~~> NO
15. Gemologist ~~~~> YES
16. El Padrino ~~~> bottom of exotics if raining
17. Done Talking ~~~> NO
18. Sabercat ~~~~> NO
19. I'll Have Another ~~~~> bottom of exotics
20. Liaison ~~~~> HELL NO

Top
#1704139 - 05/02/12 06:54 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Like your analysis for the most part Phog.

I'm looking at keying Union Rags and Dullahan.

Couple of longer shots I might take a flyer on:

Daddy Knows Best
Went The Day Well

Top
#1704140 - 05/02/12 07:53 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Here ya go Lisa T.
.56 down to .48 CD is considered optimium for 1 1/4 mile.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-dosage-and-dual-qualifiers


Horse

Dosage profile

Dosage Index

Center of distribution




Alpha

7-6-19-4-0

1.67

0.44



Bodemeister

9-9-12-0-2

3.00

0.72



Creative Cause

3-2-23-0-0

1.43

0.29



Daddy Long Legs

11-1-3-3-0

3.00

1.11



Daddy Nose Best

5-1-5-1-0

2.43

0.83



Done Talking

10-6-10-2-2

2.33

0.67



Dullahan

8-8-10-0-0

4.20

0.92



El Padrino

11-5-20-0-0

2.60

0.75



Gemologist

12-2-13-1-0

2.73

0.89



Hansen

6-5-6-1-0

3.50

0.89



I'll Have Another

2-4-7-1-0

2.11

0.50



Liaison

1-4-5-0-0

3.00

0.60



Optimizer

10-9-17-0-0

3.24


0.81



Prospective

8-5-11-0-0

3.36


0.88



Rousing Sermon

5-3-10-0-0

2.60

0.72



Sabercat

10-4-13-0-1

2.73

0.79



Take Charge Indy

6-13-19-0-0

3.00

0.66



Trinniberg

3-0-3-0-0

3.00

1.00



Union Rags

9-1-10-2-0

2.14

0.77



Went the Day Well

4-1-11-0-0

1.91

0.56


By dosage best choices would be from the entrants Alpha, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Went the Day Well. Look at the Classic score tallied by Creative Cause, a staggering 23.
According to his breeding Cause is a lock for the Belmont.
Derby winner strictly by dosage...Went the Day Well.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704141 - 05/02/12 08:44 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Dosage Fans ... may I present you with an orgasmic opportunity ....


Derby Dosage - All Time

Dosage Stats and more Stats.

Top
#1704142 - 05/02/12 09:01 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
The trend numbers will always rise with time as there is a continuous stream of new Chefs contributing.
However, if the composite shows anything it is that you cannot rely on dosage to consistantly pick the winner of a given race.
I believe only 4 times in history has a dual qualifyer won the Derby.

You're right though. That page brings back a flood of memories.
Check out Carry Back and Tim Tam. Incredible numbers.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704143 - 05/02/12 09:04 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Fascinating stuff isn't it Appy!

I always do this ... research the current Derby then spend the majority of my time digging the history lessons of this fantastic race!!

Top
#1704144 - 05/02/12 10:15 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Then there is Secretariat. His numbers give little clue that he could win one, let alone dominate all three.

Just for fun, here are the profiles of 3 of my horses.
SH (filly)
12-4-11-2-1
2.53
.80

SNM
4-2-8-0-0
2.5
.71

Waka
9-4--9-0-0
3.89
1.00
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704145 - 05/02/12 10:38 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
Anonymous
Unregistered

I figured these Klein Speed Points for the Derby. The lower the number, the more early speed a horse has. The numbers indicate where a horse is typically placed in a race. It can also be very handy in determining how hot, or contested, the pace can and will be. This Derby is NOT lacking in front-runners.

1.------------------------------------124
2.-----------------------------155
3.----------------------------------------------------------------------> -2
4. -------------------------------------------------79
5.--236
6.----------------------------------------------------------------------------> -33
7.-------------183
8.-------------------------------------------113
9.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------> -98
10.--------------------------159
11.----------------------------------------------107
12.-------------------------------------142
13.-------------------------------------------------------63
14.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------> -35
15.--------------------------------------------------------------------> -6
16.-------------------------------------------------------62
17.------------------179
18.------215
19.---------------------------------------------------------------35
20.-------------------------------------------115

OKAY ... here goes an amateur-hack handicappers take on the Derby so far....

On paper, (9) Trinniberg will set the pace as the speed of the speed. Probably go a Balto Star-ish 1:09 and change for 6 panels then be done, or he may last a smidge longer if allowed to go, but he is zero threat to steal this race.

(14) Hansen is a bona-fide front-runner and should break well and stalk or vie for command using precious energy early. Also don't think he will be around at the end.

(6) Bodemeister 108, the field's highest BSF in the field, although that figure was set with ideal conditions - lone speed, able to relax, uncontested to draw off. Did NOT race as a 2 year old. Baffert needs no introduction. This horse will be no surprise to me if he finishes anywhere between 1 and 12. I will use him defensively.

(15) Gemologist - wise-guy horse with great trainer. Game in last victory but lightly raced. Very well-drawn for a clean stalking trip. Exotic player.

(3) Take Charge Indy - poorly drawn inside the real speeds, but he has Calvin the Borail to guide him which will also cut your price. Don't see him hitting the board and I will take a stand against.

(19) I'll Have Another likes to stalk. Lightly raced, definite toss if it rains. A lot of people's wise-guy horse. I don't think he has the foundation to hit the board.

(13) Went the Day Well, another stalker who can get position. Connections need no introduction, but I don't care for this one.

(16) El Padrino - upgrade if it rains. Stalker with declining Beyers. Florida Derby was a REAL clunker.

(4) Union Rags, drawn okay if he can avoid trouble early and not get cut off by all the speeds to his outside. I like him, but he will have to avoid a troubled trip from here. Wish he was further out

(11) Alpha - has had training issues, but if you like Gemologist you must like this one. Beyers are climbing and this is an interesting long shot to hit the exotics.

(8) Creative Cause - you can't play them all, and I may or may not use this one. Reports are sketchy, but he's ran some good ones. Muddies the picture for me. Probably a defensive use in the exotics.

(20) Liaison - Baffert's B-team, tossing.

(1) Daddy Long Legs - 1-hole is the kiss of death, and he was soundly trounced by these in the BC Juvy. Don't like.

(12) Prospective - certainly a cut below these others.

(2) Optimizer - Lukas returns with a closer. Trounced in the Arky Derby. Not for me anywhere.

(10) Daddy Nose Best - All out to win the Sunland Derby, runner-up was trounced in the Arkansas Derby. Hard to like here, but maybe a bomb for the bottom of the superfecta.

(17) Done Talking - yes, he is. Toss.

(7) Rousing Sermon - I'm not feeling the faith. Toss.

(18) Sabercat - Interesting 3rd in the Arkansas Derby but too slow. Toss.

(5) Dullahan - If pace makes the race, this guy has a real shot. Now, I have concerns about his best efforts being on turf and poly, but he ran okay in the BC Juvy, which is shorter than he wants to run. His Bluegrass was visually impressive, and according to his trainer, Churchill is his home base where he trains frequently. He's a dead-nut closer who should have every chance to win this race, especially if they go bonkers up front and the race falls apart. From post 5 he's going to have to pass every horse in this field. Good jockey, good running style, excellent chance.

I've not confirmed any selections as of yet, but I am certainly narrowing it down. Should be a great race by this excellent crop of 3 year olds.

Ohhhh, and if you read this far, you win a free ice cream cone

Top
#1704146 - 05/03/12 12:52 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Choc chip in french vanilla for me!

Just as important and as tough to handicap as the Derby is the Oaks tomorrow. Who will win that one?
I have 5 fillies circled but danged if I can narrow them down to a winner. Wheels are expensive.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
#1704147 - 05/03/12 12:59 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Fantastic analysis Phog.

Thanks for the great information...and it makes me feel good about my Dullahan selection.

But the Derby is always such a crapshoot...who knows what will happen.

Picked Nehro last year....he finished a solid 2nd (had zero interest in Animal Kingdom tho).

Good card tomorrow and Saturday. Lots of quality betting races....looking forward to it!

Top
#1704148 - 05/03/12 02:37 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: christgs80]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
http://www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com...-positions-odds


THE OAKS.
PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

ML



1

On Fire Baby

J. Johnson

G. Hartlage

4/1



2

Grace Hall

J. Castellano

A. Dutrow

5/2



3

Summer Applause

G. Gomez

B. Calhoun

15/1



4

Eden's Moon

M. Garcia

B. Baffert

12/1



5

Hard Not to Like

R. Albarado

G. Cox

20/1



6

Broadway's Alibi

J. Velazquez

T. Pletcher

4/1



7

Sacristy

M. Smith

W. Catalano

50/1



8

Jemina's Pearl

J. Talamo

B. Baffert

10/1



9

Believe You Can

R. Napravnik

L. Jones

10/1



10

And Why Not

J. Leparoux

M. Matz

15/1



11

Karlovy Vary

J. Graham

R. Arnold

20/1



12

Colonial Express

C. Nakatani

D.W. Lukas

50/1



13

Amie's Dini

J. Court

R. Mouquett

10/1



14

Yara

J. Castanon

J. Garofollo

30/1



15 AE

Oaks Lily

TBD

T. Hill

50/1


The fillies I'm looking at are #2 Grace Hall (5-2), #1 On Fire Baby (4-1), #9 Believe You Can ( 10-1), #3 Summer Applause (15-1), and #10 And Why Not (15-1).

I don't like the inside draws for 1-3. That leaves me with Believe You Can or And Why Not to win.
Rosie riding Believe You Can wins my coin toss, but I might just take a hedge with #10.
I'd be spitting in the river trying to make a cold pick exotic and can't afford to try buying the race.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





Top
Page 2 of 4 < 1 2 3 4 >

Preview