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#1704119 - 04/29/12 10:24 AM KENTUCKY DERBY
Anonymous
Unregistered

Any horse racing fans here ? Any thoughts on the upcoming Kentucky Derby?

I'm waiting on the final draw, but as of this moment I'm leaning toward Union Rags.





KentuckyDerby.com

DRF Derby Info


Road to the Triple Crown

Derby Contenters

Union Rags Story

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#1704120 - 04/29/12 12:49 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
scubajayhawk Offline
Junior Jayhawk

Registered: 02/28/07
Loc: ...in a van down by the river
one of my ol' KU buddies is on the ownership team for Dullahan. I'm going to bet Dullahan, not because of the horse or the prior friendship (I haven't spoken to the guy in 10 years or more). i'm betting Dullahan becaue of the jockey: Kent Desormeaux. always bet the jockey.

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#1704121 - 04/29/12 12:59 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: scubajayhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

One of the keys to evaluating the Derby is the Juvenile Chart:
BC Juvenile

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#1704122 - 04/30/12 07:51 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
LisaT Offline
Max Falkenstein

Registered: 03/11/07
Take Charge Indy for me!
_________________________
Summer of Love

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#1704123 - 04/30/12 08:58 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LisaT]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Great stuff everyone!

PPs provide indispensable info in making your choice because they can reveal trends.
There are trends in individual horse performance, there are trends for individual tracks, and there are trends to individual race results.
There are a lot of awfully nice horses in this race, including one who is undefeated. Undefeated is a trend that cannot be overlooked.
Another trend is that no horse in 130+ years has won the Derby without having run as a juvenile (2yr old). Bedemeister will attempt to buck that trend and appears to have every necessary talent to do just that. Still, the race trend cannot be overlooked. Here's a gravel in the gear of that trend; this year is an unusual year seasonally (warmest mean temps in well over 100 yrs). In fact what makes this year different coincides nearly the same in starting date and longevity as said race trend. Is that a trend? I'm just crazy enough to call it an angle. Bodemeister gets consideration from me as a winner.
Gemologist has not been beaten and gets serious consideration from me.
I love Creative Cause, just don't know he can blister the distance. but I'll sure have a tough time picking against him in the Preakness.
Of those 3 I'll take whichever shows up at the gate with the longest odds.

You can download a very impressive FREE Derby Preview at: http://www.xpressbet.com/KentuckyDerby

If nothing else it makes a nice souvenir.


Edited by appyhawk (04/30/12 09:20 AM)
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www.cappersoverlay.com





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#1704124 - 04/30/12 07:57 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
PhogHead Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 12/13/04
Loc: Bluegrass
I took Take Charge Indy in the first future pool at about 45-1 so I hope he wins because of that bet. I liked his middle move in the Breeders Cup Juvenile figuring he had room to improve off of a fifth place finish.
I like a horse that is able to avoid traffic problems in the race like everyone else, so I like a horse that can make it to the first turn that has good position. As much traffic problems as there are a horse who can maneuver around problems and not lose speed is also a good angle.
Right now it is so hard to figure out among the horses with long odds who could be sitting on a big race. I liked the way Sabercat finished in the Arkansas derby.

I'll wait until post positions are drawn Wed. to make a final decision. I don't think a horse has won the Derby from the 1 hole since 1886 so throw that one out, as well as the two and three. the rail is so hard to negociate from the starting gate at CD.

As of today I will probably play a ten cent super with eight horses for $168

Bodemeister
Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best or I'll Have Another
Dullahan
El Padrino or Sabercat
Gemologist
Take Charge Indy
Union Rags


Most likely Union Rags will be around 5-1 at post, which is a pretty good value. I watched him work at Keeneland on April 20 and you can throw out the FD he is as legit as the come.
_________________________
"Success" Hiring someone to mow the lawn while you play golf for exercise.

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#1704125 - 04/30/12 08:45 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: PhogHead]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Great take.
In addition to the draw I will pay attention to potential weather/track conditions. El Padrino seems to excel on an off track. Not that he's a scam on a good one...great horse and probably to offer a good price.
This race has so many really good horses. Good chance to make a killing for whoever can pick the order.
I think you're right that trip will largely determine the winner. So many entrants the Derby is a crapshoot.
I'll wait til the last minute to make my play. Can't make up my mind. Heh.

Keeneland one of my favorite tracks. Wish I could have been there with you.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





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#1704126 - 04/30/12 10:54 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Prep Race Replays

Interesting Spread Sheet

Herd Dynamics and Horse Psychology

I too am waiting on the draw ...... At this point, I'm using Dullahan and Union Rags, and will toss in a long shot like Alpha if he draws wide. I'll be using Creative Cause everywhere but first.

The more replay I watch, the more my eyeballs tell me to play Dullahan. Although I don't like that his success has been on synthetic and turf, he did finish well in the BC Juvenile after a less than spectacular start.

Dullahan reminds me of Animal Kingdom, and we know how that worked out last year.

Again, the draw is critical for so many horses in this field, so selections as of now are obviously premature, but ... to play this race you have to be either for or against Bodemeister. I am against.

I just can't see anyone on the front end winning this race ... BUT .. the last time I thought that ... friggin War Emblem jogged around the track !!

I despise playing a horse because I am afraid of him, and Bodemeister fits that tag. I can see keying him and he gets burned up in a duel and finishes 12th, or I can see leaving him out and he's allowed to set slow fractions then draw off ....

The Derby - the world's greatest puzzle!!

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#1704127 - 05/01/12 08:50 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
I considered Animal Kingdom to be an anomoly, but you could make the case 4 of the last ten have been the same.
Bode is a threat. Just my suspicion he is the threat that will set up the winner.
Dullahan is a compelling prospect picking up support from quite a few experts.
Too much unknown for me to think I have a handle yet on how it will end up going. The one thing I know is if I could own any horse in this race it would be Creative Cause.

Handicapping horses just may be the greatest (and most challenging?) game in the world. I know for sure when you're connected to one there's nothing that compares.

Good stuff Phogified.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





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#1704128 - 05/01/12 10:58 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
LEG Offline
Junior Jayhawk

Registered: 04/14/12
PhogHead, there is no 10 cent superfecta wagering on the Derbyshire. I like Union Rags, Hansen, and Gemology.

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#1704129 - 05/01/12 04:24 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LEG]
Anonymous
Unregistered

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#1704130 - 05/01/12 06:30 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
No one seems to be giving Gemologist much due.
No one has beaten him.
This is why I pay as much attention to video as I do to stats.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





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#1704131 - 05/02/12 07:48 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: appyhawk]
LisaT Offline
Max Falkenstein

Registered: 03/11/07
do you ever look at the dosage index? That is how I pick
_________________________
Summer of Love

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#1704132 - 05/02/12 08:02 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: scubajayhawk]
Hawklin Offline
Justin Ray Giddens

Registered: 03/27/05
Quote:

one of my ol' KU buddies is on the ownership team for Dullahan. I'm going to bet Dullahan, not because of the horse or the prior friendship (I haven't spoken to the guy in 10 years or more). i'm betting Dullahan becaue of the jockey: Kent Desormeaux. always bet the jockey.





I know the owner as well. But must be a Kansas connection of the group... because she / he (my friend) are not KU.
_________________________
I'd sooner, except the penalties, kill a man than a hawk.

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#1704133 - 05/02/12 08:26 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY [Re: LisaT]
appyhawk Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 05/17/04
Loc: Flint Hills
Quote:

do you ever look at the dosage index? That is how I pick




Absolutely. In fact I probably rely on it more than I should.
I don't always let dosage determine my pick for the winner of a given race but I ALWAYS prioritize it for breeding or buying.
_________________________
"Better to do less well than more poorly." Appy

www.cappersoverlay.com





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