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#1519951 - 09/27/11 12:53 PM What's the most you would give up for J. Shields?
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
this was just on 810.

they mentioned Myers and Billy. I think I'd pull the trigger w/o little thought.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519952 - 09/27/11 01:17 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Myers and Butler is really, really steep for a 30-year old good-but-not-great pitcher.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519953 - 09/27/11 01:21 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Really? For a guy that automatically becomes our #1 starter? We'd be 1 pitcher away from chasing this division now.

TB's going to want a guy like Myers and major leaguer. There's no question I'd give up Myers and Cabrera, but that may not be enough.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519954 - 09/27/11 01:34 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Six years of Wil Myers alone is worth more than three of James Shields (at $7MM, $9MM, and then $12MM).

I'm not saying you don't move Myers. I'm saying you don't do it for for James Shields, who will be 30 next year and, while he is having an excellent season, is coming off a stinker in 2009 and a very pedestrian 2010.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519955 - 09/27/11 01:52 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
Why does everyone always want to trade Butler? He's worth more to the Royals now than any trade value K.C. could get back. And he's still only 25.

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#1519956 - 09/27/11 01:56 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I agree with you Fish...I wouldn't trade for James Shields....I don't think he's a #1 starter, he's a #2 at best....and in my opinion that isn't worth a Myers and another prospect/full timer.

I personally would call Florida about Josh Johnson. We all know Florida is always cheap, and despite moving into a new stadium, I think that trend will continue.

I know he's injury-prone, and he's got a pretty lofty contract, but when he's right, he's a legitimate #1 starter, and honestly, I don't think we'd have to trade all that much to get him.

Maybe one of our pitching prospects (Lamb, Dwyer, Montgomery) and another mid-level prospect.

What do you think about that?

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#1519957 - 09/27/11 01:58 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jnewell]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

Why does everyone always want to trade Butler? He's worth more to the Royals now than any trade value K.C. could get back. And he's still only 25.




Because the perception is the Royals need to trade for a big-time starter, and no one wants to think about giving up a non-Butler core player (Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakas, etc.).
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519958 - 09/27/11 02:04 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
Makes sense in theory. I just think Butler's actual production will always outweigh his trade value because people will always focus on what he can't do.

Quote:

Quote:

Why does everyone always want to trade Butler? He's worth more to the Royals now than any trade value K.C. could get back. And he's still only 25.




Because the perception is the Royals need to trade for a big-time starter, and no one wants to think about giving up a non-Butler core player (Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakas, etc.).



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#1519959 - 09/27/11 02:05 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jnewell]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
And, of course, his is a very limited trade market.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519960 - 09/27/11 02:06 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jnewell]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
Wish the Royals would turn some of their bullpen arms to starters. Surely out of Soria, Holland and Montgomery they could find two starters to go with Hoch, Paulino and Duffy.

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#1519961 - 09/27/11 02:06 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
Only AL teams, I would think.

Quote:

And, of course, his is a very limited trade market.



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#1519962 - 09/27/11 02:08 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
Merg311 Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/01/06
Loc: Hays, KS
Let's be honest, the Royals aren't gonna go out and trade for a true #1, maybe not even a true #2. They'll go find a retread, someone who is a #3 at best, which means they'll be a #1 of our staff. If they do this through trade they won't give away too much, and if they go through free agency they'll overpay.
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#1519963 - 09/27/11 02:22 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: Merg311]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
JFish — Can you think of a trade that would make sense for the Royals? I still think the Braves are the best fit with all their pitching.

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#1519964 - 09/27/11 02:58 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jnewell]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Greinke? (Mostly kidding. But don't be shocked if that's Rany's next hypothesis.)

Chad Billingsley? Matt Cain? Mike Pelfrey? Matt Garza?

Buy low on John Lackey?
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519965 - 09/27/11 03:46 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
I've heard Billingsley's name thrown around too. Also heard (shudder) Zambrano's name come up.

I understand Shields' age and his last 2 seasons. But to answer the #1 pitcher question, the numbers he put up this year aren't Cy Young numbers, but they're #1 pitcher numbers
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519966 - 09/27/11 03:47 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jnewell]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

Wish the Royals would turn some of their bullpen arms to starters. Surely out of Soria, Holland and Montgomery they could find two starters to go with Hoch, Paulino and Duffy.




Rany said the Soria to rotation rumors died years ago.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519967 - 09/27/11 03:51 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
And they were buried with the shoulder issues this year.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519968 - 09/27/11 03:54 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
True. And I'm not advocating James Shields. I'm more advocating that we make a move. And if we do, we'll have to part w/ a couple of pieces we like. But getting a #1 in return is worth it, imo.

I like what we got back on Zack, but do you think Milwaukee regrets it? hell no.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519969 - 09/27/11 03:55 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
jayhwk01 Offline
Timmy's Nemesis

Registered: 01/22/05
Loc: Mt. Oread's Shadow
Quote:

Greinke? (Mostly kidding. But don't be shocked if that's Rany's next hypothesis.)

Chad Billingsley? Matt Cain? Mike Pelfrey? Matt Garza?

Buy low on John Lackey?




You had me clear up till Lackey.
_________________________
kusports.net Peace Out and Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

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#1519970 - 09/27/11 04:00 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

True. And I'm not advocating James Shields. I'm more advocating that we make a move. And if we do, we'll have to part w/ a couple of pieces we like. But getting a #1 in return is worth it, imo.

I like what we got back on Zack, but do you think Milwaukee regrets it? hell no.




Milwaukee didn't give up a devastating young hitter already producing in the majors and a top-shelf offensive prospect.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519971 - 09/27/11 04:03 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
KUSPORTSFAN93 Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 01/30/09
Loc: Lawrence, Kansas
If we're going to trade a major leaguer (coupled with a prospect) for a pitcher, it needs to be an outfielder. I'm of the belief that Lorenzo Cain will be pretty good, so we ought to trade an outfielder. Not Billy. He's a good DH.
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'22 * '23 * '52 * '88 * '08

Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!

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#1519972 - 09/27/11 04:08 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

Quote:

True. And I'm not advocating James Shields. I'm more advocating that we make a move. And if we do, we'll have to part w/ a couple of pieces we like. But getting a #1 in return is worth it, imo.

I like what we got back on Zack, but do you think Milwaukee regrets it? hell no.




Milwaukee didn't give up a devastating young hitter already producing in the majors and a top-shelf offensive prospect.




Well then it should be simple, find a team that's as willing to give up a #1 as we were.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519973 - 09/27/11 04:28 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Does Dayton have a suggestion box?
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519974 - 09/27/11 04:29 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
jnewell Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/07/08
Loc: Lawrence, KS
No, but Bill Self does.

Quote:

Does Dayton have a suggestion box?



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#1519975 - 09/27/11 04:30 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
It's funny b/c die-hard fans are die-hard fans. I've met no less than 50 potential Royals GM's.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519976 - 09/27/11 06:32 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I honestly think it might be a good idea this off-season to trade Cabrera, whose value more than likely will never be higher.

He's never hit the ball this well in his big league career, and I don't think it would be a terrible idea to think about moving him.

And I loved the post about Lackey....please please please never say John Lackey's name again. He's one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, and has been declining now for years.

I heard some names that were intriguing....Bilingsley and Cain could be interesting options.

The key question however is are the Royals willing to trade some prospects for a front-line starter...I'm not sure if they are.

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#1519977 - 09/28/11 02:36 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
Sychophant Offline
Junior Jayhawk

Registered: 01/22/05
Loc: Lawrence
Shields has an ERA of this year of 2.82 in 33 starts. If he were obtained and pitched an under-3 era, he would win 20 games for the Royals This year he has put up career numbers. Hard to tell whether he is capable of having another great year.
_________________________
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#1519978 - 09/28/11 03:02 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: Sychophant]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I think my thing is that if we want to deal Myers and another big time prospect or even a guy like Billy Butler, I would like more in return than James Shields.

That's the kind of deal I'd offer for a Cain.

I think very highly of Cain, and hope the Royals make a serious push for him this off-season.

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#1519979 - 09/28/11 03:18 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
The Giants are so bad offensively that you wonder if they'd give Butler a look at first. There are no pitchers I understand to be available that would be worth dealing Myers and Butler.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519980 - 09/28/11 03:26 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
then, imo, to land a splashy SP, we'll need someone to bite on prospect + melky.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519981 - 09/28/11 03:30 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
The problem is that there are just not very many guys available worth anything close to a premium package. Unless the Brewers trade Zack.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519982 - 09/28/11 05:07 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I would have a very hard time dealing Myers and Butler for Cain.

What about Butler and Melky for Cain? I'd pull the trigger on that....not sure if the GIants would though.

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#1519983 - 09/30/11 10:59 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Just checked and the Giants are going to owe a small fortune for their starting 5 next season. Maybe Cain could be possible.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519984 - 09/30/11 12:34 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I think Cain is a distinct possibility, and a great option if the Royals truly want to try and acquire a #1 or #2 starter.

But I'm sure we wouldn't be the only team bidding for him if he were to become available, and that usually means the Royals won't be getting him.

Would be awfully nice though.

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#1519985 - 09/30/11 12:43 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
We're not bidding in dollars here. Royals are in the other league and have a lot to offer. They're as positioned as well as anyone.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519986 - 10/02/11 11:26 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

It shapes up as a pretty simple off-season for general manager Dayton Moore and his lieutenants; they have just one “must” on their check list between now and next February when the Royals report for spring training in Surprise, Ariz.

Acquire a front-line starting pitcher.

“That’s it in a nutshell,” one club official said. “We need that one veteran reliable guy to build around. We’d love to get two but, realistically, that’s probably not going to happen. But one guy, if he’s the right guy, should be enough to make a big difference.”

So, yes, the Royals will look hard at the free-agent list.

While CC Sabathia (assuming he opts out of his contract) and C.J. Wilson are likely to be too pricey, the Royals figure to take a run at Edwin Jackson. But club officials say any impact acquisition is likely to come through a trade.

“We’ll be aggressive,” Moore said, “but it’s got to make sense. And from everything I hear, everyone is looking for pitching. So we’ll see.”

Moore is already on record for his willingness to deal prospects for that much-needed arm. That means guys in the minors; not those already in the big leagues. So, no, Eric Hosmer isn’t likely to go anywhere. Neither is Sal Perez nor Mike Moustakas.

“The bottom line is we can’t weaken our strengths,” Moore said. “We can’t regress in one area to try to become a little bit better in another area.”

The Royals might dangle some of their young relievers as part of a deal — which is one reason they wanted to get a late-season look at Vin Mazzaro in the bullpen. But the key element in any swap is likely to come from the club’s collection of minor-league talent.

Cleveland offered a possible blueprint in late July by trading its top two pitching prospects, Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, as part of a five-player deal to get Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado.

“I love our prospects,” another Royals official said, “but all that matters is what you do up here. If we can get the guy we need, and it costs us Cheslor Cuthbert or Wil Myers or even (Mike) Montgomery or (Jake) Odorizzi, I think we do it. Now, it has to be the right guy …”

Club officials are reluctant, unsurprisingly, to reveal possible trade targets. One said only half-jokingly: “You can probably go through all the rosters. Anyone who fits the profile is on our list.”

Even so, some names are already making the rounds: James Shields (Rays), Chad Billingsley (Dodgers), Gio Gonzalez (A’s), Jair Jurrjens (Braves), Wandy Rodriguez (Astros) along with Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs.

Shields seems the best fit — if the Rays are indeed willing to deal him after their surprising run to postseason — because his salary is about to jump from $4.25 million to $7 million in 2012, $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014.

That might be more than the frugal Rays can afford, but it fits within the Royals’ short-term payroll structure — especially because there are buyout options each year. Tampa Bay is also seeking high-end, position-player prospects, which the Royals possess.

Shields, while just 29, is also used to being the lynchpin in a young staff. But he gave up seven runs and threw two wild pitches in five innings Saturday as the Rays lost 8-6 at Texas, evening their AL playoff series at one game apiece.

The Dodgers are a financial mess at the moment, which could lead them to shop Billingsley, whose three-year, $35 million deal takes effect next season and includes a club option for 2015 at $14 million.

Many industry insiders believe the A’s will shop pitching this winter, and the Royals have always liked Gonzalez, who becomes eligible for arbitration after this season.

Atlanta is loaded with young pitchers and is likely to see what it can get for Jurrjens, whose salary will jump this winter as a first-time arbitration eligible. But he comes with a red flag; injuries limited him to 20 and 23 starts over the last two years.

Houston tried to trade Rodriguez in its July fire sale, but his contract is steep: a guaranteed $25.5 million over the next two years. Some scouts believe Rodriguez’s stuff plays out no better than a No. 3 starter on a good American League team.

The Cubs appear in line for a major overhaul and, from all accounts, are willing to eat a sizable portion of Zambrano’s guaranteed $37.25 million over the next two years just to unload him. He’s a legitimate No. 1 when in top form, but his baggage is considerable.

Dempster appears on the decline and holds an option for next season at $14 million. Scouts say he has the leadership intangibles the Royals desire, but he might top out as a borderline No. 3 starter. The Royals are hoping for more; he might be a fall-back option.

The Cubs seem inclined to retain Garza, who is in line for a raise through arbitration from his $5.95 million salary before reaching free-agent eligibility after next season. Even if available, how much do the Royals want to surrender for one year?

“We’re not going to do anything that doesn’t make sense for us in the long term,” Moore said. “That’s why the most important thing for us is to make the pitchers we have better. If we can just trim our walks by 100, that would be huge.”

The Royals led the American League in walks, which was the main reason that pitching coach Bob McClure was fired after six seasons.

“I think there’s a lot of upside in our rotation,” manager Ned Yost said. “I think (Luke) Hochevar really turned a corner the second half; I think Danny Duffy is going to be a tremendous pitcher; I think (Felipe) Paulino has a chance to be a very solid producer.

“I was very impressed with (Luis) Mendoza when he came up; I was impressed with (Everett) Teaford these last couple of starts. We’ve got Vin Mazzaro, who’ll have a shot. We’ve got Montgomery, who will compete for a spot. We’re going to try Aaron Crow as a starter next spring. So I think we’re going to have enough solid pitching to help us get better.”

Nonetheless, club officials aren’t kidding themselves. They know they need a reliable veteran arm who, preferably, is a legitimate starter No. 2 on a postseason contender; failing that, a solid No. 3 guy.

“We need 1,000 innings out of our rotation,” Moore said. “I’ve been very consistent with that from day one. To win a world championship, you’d better dominate in a couple of areas. Certainly, pitching is one of them.”



Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2011/10/01/3179129/royals-goal-for-next-season-find.html#ixzz1ZdtGlbdI


_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519987 - 10/02/11 06:09 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Some of those names mentioned I would have zero interest in the Royals going after (Zambrano, Dempster, Rodriguez).

Gio Gonzalez is an interesting name......I like him a lot from seeing a few of his starts and would be a legitimate #1 starter in KC.

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#1519988 - 10/03/11 11:42 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
My goal for the Royals next year is to get above .500, and then in 2013 go for it.
I think we are a year ahead of trying to get a front of the rotation guy.
I'd rather see Duffy and Montgomery get a full year in at the major league level.
_________________________
" Stay thirsty my friends ".

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#1519989 - 10/03/11 11:46 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jammahawk]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

My goal for the Royals next year is to get above .500, and then in 2013 go for it.
I think we are a year ahead of trying to get a front of the rotation guy.
I'd rather see Duffy and Montgomery get a full year in at the major league level.




I see your point, but we were pretty good batting all year and really good the second half of the season.

If we're going to re-sign Frenchy and offer Melky arbitration, then we need to go after it next season. The central isn't very good and I don't think we're risking too much by going after it next season, provided we get a guy. And not just any guy, no reason to trade just to trade.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519990 - 10/03/11 12:38 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Well...you have to break things down and build them back up to really see where we go from here.

The Royals were 38-43 in the second half. If you figure that the second-half roster is what the Royals will enter 2012 with, barring no offseason moves, the current roster's quick-and-dirty projection is 76-86. That's about ten games short of true contention (which I would argue as being good enough that getting reasonably lucky means you make the playoffs).

It's highly unlikely that the Royals can acquire one player who will add ten wins to the Royals. Justin Verlander, the presumptive Cy Young winner this year, was worth 7.0 wins or 8.6 wins, depending on your preferred source. If you replace all of Davies', O'Sullivan's, and Mazzaro's innings with Verlander's season, you will net out 7.0 wins or 11.9 wins (again, depending on your source).

But there's probably nowhere near that good of a pitcher available (and a starting pitcher is where the Royals can make the biggest gain in the fewest amount of roster spots). James Shields, for reference, was worth 4.9 or 6.1 wins this year, in both cases the highest of his career.

I think it's fair to expect that the Royals can acquire, at best, five marginal wins in the form of one starting pitcher. The returns on a second pitcher would diminish somewhat; this is intuitive: replacing bad pitchers with a good pitcher goes farther than replacing a mediocre pitcher with a good pitcher.

One pitcher, five wins, so that's 81-81.

But is that quick-and-dirty projection right? That gets way more complex than I can get into here, but: the Royals roster is subject to a sort of fascinating combination of regression (which is not always bad) and improvement. It's unlikely any of the core players will decline, as that word is used differently from regression.

Gordon will probably be worse. Hosmer will probably be better. Perez will probably be worse. Moustakas will probably be better. Francoeur and Cabrera will probably be worse. Butler and Soria will probably be better.

And then there's the young arms. Make no mistake, there's still a ton of talent there. And also make no mistake: the Royals cannot sustain success--which is the goal--by tearing the farm system asunder in a misguided effort to go for a playoff appearance or two.

Which is why I would play this offseason conservatively, despite the collective angst it would generate among the fanbase. There aren't more than 20 pitchers in baseball who would make a big enough difference to make trading high-end prospects worth it. If you can get a Cole Hamels or a James Shields or a Matt Cain, maybe you do sacrifice a blue-chip guy. But, absent a high-leverage move, I think you stand relatively still.

I think that, between Duffy improving, Crow getting a look in the rotation, and the likely emergence of at least one more rotation-quality starter (Montgomery?) in the spring, spending prospects on anything less than a true front-line guy would be wasteful.

In the end, I like the idea of betting on your own talent rather than making a move for the sake of making a move.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519991 - 10/03/11 03:43 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
Quote:

What about Butler and Melky for Cain? I'd pull the trigger on that....not sure if the GIants would though.




You would pull the trigger on this?? No way. That is taking the #2 and #3 hittters out of the lineup that was arguably a top 5 offensive club this year. All for what, a patch to a gaping whole otherwise known as the starting rotation? I'm sorry but I definitely believe that having both melky and billy's bats (along with fairly generous contracts) in the lineup as opposed to a second tier pitcher.
_________________________
I felt like Deion!

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#1519992 - 10/03/11 03:52 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: tyler]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Gosh, I'd do that deal in a second.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519993 - 10/03/11 04:13 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
Quote:

Gosh, I'd do that deal in a second.




And why is that? How many more wins would Cain actually provide compared to the runs produced from the two players from the heart of the order?
_________________________
I felt like Deion!

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#1519994 - 10/03/11 04:28 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: tyler]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
You know, scratch that. Cain makes $15 million next year and is only signed through the season.

But, for discussion purposes...Cain has been, typically, worth about as much himself as Butler and Cabrera have been worth combined; this was a bizarro-land year for Melky, and it is dangerous to assume he won't regress.

I don't mean to piggyback on Simmons here, but it is always, always better to have a dollar bill than two fifty-cent pieces. In fact, it's better to have one player worth $.80 than two players worth $1.00 together.

It's all about maximizing the impact you get from each roster spot. That's why the talk is all about adding at least one premium pitcher this offseason; it's the highest-leverage move the Royals can make. Ryan Braun would be less of an upgrade over Alex Gordon than Cain would be over O'Sullivan/Mazzaro/Davies.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519995 - 10/03/11 04:32 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
Ok, I completely agree with you as far as the money metaphor goes. I had meant to mention the contract the Cain carries, but did make mention of contracts in my comment two posts before. I am a huge fan of Cain but would like to wait until maybe we could lock him up long term or maybe the Giants pay a portion of it.
_________________________
I felt like Deion!

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#1519996 - 10/03/11 04:34 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: tyler]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

Ok, I completely agree with you as far as the money metaphor goes. I had meant to mention the contract the Cain carries, but did make mention of contracts in my comment two posts before. I am a huge fan of Cain but would like to wait until maybe we could lock him up long term or maybe the Giants pay a portion of it.




Well, we have money to burn. Lots and lots of it. My bigger concern is trading away four years of cheap Butler for one year of Cain.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519997 - 10/03/11 05:10 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I agree with both of you....I should have mentioned I'd only do that deal if we had a pre-arranged contract extension waiting for Cain if we were to do such a trade.

I just think Melky is of course a perfect candidate to regress in a major way next season.

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#1519998 - 10/03/11 06:07 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

Well, we have money to burn. Lots and lots of it.




And the fan base knows it.

Like I said above, don't trade just to trade.

But Glass is going to hear it in the papers and airwaves if we don't spend a little of it even if the criticism is misguided.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519999 - 10/04/11 08:32 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
It hasn't stopped him before. I'm not saying that making no moves is the #1 option. But it might be #2 or #3.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1520000 - 10/04/11 10:52 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
My expected timetable was 2013, but watching the bats this summer is getting me anxious. Bringing up Hosmer a month earlier than expected didn't help my patience.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1520001 - 10/04/11 11:26 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
And people are understandably hot and bothered about adding a pitcher, but I just think there's a great chance that internal candidates might represent nearly as good of an upgrade as trade help, and they cost far less (in dollars and prospects).

I would look strongly at simply taking over someone else's bad deal. I'd take a chance on Lackey or Crawford in a second, for instance, and I'd see if Houston would just let Rodriguez go.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1520002 - 10/04/11 11:38 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
Merg311 Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/01/06
Loc: Hays, KS
Quote:

My expected timetable was 2013, but watching the bats this summer is getting me anxious. Bringing up Hosmer a month earlier than expected didn't help my patience.




Exactly! As fans, we see the production from this year (almost overlooking the fact we still lost 91 games) and the first impulse is to say "Go for it!", but the reality is we still need to be somewhat patient. We're getting closer, but most likely 2 years away from being a true contender for the division.
_________________________
"Anything from Missouri has a taint about it."

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#1520003 - 10/04/11 11:45 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: Merg311]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Nah. Perfectly reasonable to think the Royals are a contender in 2012. The division stinks, and even with an entire rotation spot's worth of innings from Davies, Mazzaro, and O'Sullivan and only a partial year of several key players, the Royals were only outscored by 32 runs.

Fix one rotation spot and expect a Pythag W/L regression back toward the mean (the Royals should have won 7 more games than they did this year according to their run differential), and you're close enough to taste a meaningful September.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1520004 - 10/04/11 11:53 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
Merg311 Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 08/01/06
Loc: Hays, KS
I hope you're right fish. Obviously, our lineup is pretty well set moving forward, but the rotation is just so far from sufficient to be talking about winning the division, no matter how weak the central is.

I'm not sure who Detroit will have coming back, but if it takes 90 wins to win the division, I don't see the Royals being that team.
_________________________
"Anything from Missouri has a taint about it."

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#1520005 - 10/04/11 07:21 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: Merg311]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
I do not see the Royals doing it next year. '12 get over .500, '13 win the division.
_________________________
" Stay thirsty my friends ".

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#1520006 - 10/05/11 09:44 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jammahawk]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Well...if you're over .500, you're competing in the Central.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1520007 - 10/05/11 10:08 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
You really don't have much respect for Detroit, do ya J?

They did win 95 games this year, and most of their core group is still young enough to make this not just a one-year thing.

I do agree .500 would seriously compete for 2nd place, but it'll take over 90 wins to win the division.

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#1520008 - 10/05/11 10:17 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Detroit's record seemed to be better than what they actually were. They went on that little win streak that pushed that W column up.

The thing about being in a weak 5-team division, you're gonna win a lot of games against the bottom 2-3 teams.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1520009 - 10/07/11 12:31 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1520010 - 10/07/11 04:54 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
KUSPORTSFAN93 Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 01/30/09
Loc: Lawrence, Kansas
If the Royals can get one very good pitcher and another pretty good one, I see them winning 85 next year. Young players moving into their second season. Hitting and fielding was already very good.
_________________________
'22 * '23 * '52 * '88 * '08

Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!

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#1520011 - 10/07/11 05:00 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: KUSPORTSFAN93]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Uhh...fielding?
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1520012 - 10/07/11 06:24 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
KUSPORTSFAN93 Offline
Wilt Chamberlain

Registered: 01/30/09
Loc: Lawrence, Kansas
Quote:

Uhh...fielding?




Do you disagree? Frenchy, Gordon, and Melky combined for 52 outfield assists (23 from Gordon alone). Escobar looked great on defense. Hosmer too. Perez looks like he's going to be a very good defensive catcher.
_________________________
'22 * '23 * '52 * '88 * '08

Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Go KU!

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#1520013 - 10/07/11 06:34 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: KUSPORTSFAN93]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I like the defense outside of Moose, who I don't think is a very good 3B from what I've seen.

And I also think Melky is an average CF, he's much more suited I think for a corner outfield position.

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#1520014 - 10/14/11 10:43 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Trade for Greinke.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1520015 - 10/20/11 11:34 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
HAWKSTAR69 Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 04/05/11
We traded a Cy Young winner (Chipotle) for a guy who started at shortstop (Yuni) for a playoff team last year and now, a little over a year later, we want to trade for a downgrade at P (Shields)? How hard could being a GM really be?

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#1520016 - 10/20/11 11:42 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: HAWKSTAR69]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

We traded a Cy Young winner (Chipotle) for a guy who started at shortstop (Yuni) for a playoff team last year and now, a little over a year later, we want to trade for a downgrade at P (Shields)? How hard could being a GM really be?




Might want to check your facts. Also, Zack quit on the team, cost more money than what we got back, and was only getting older.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1520017 - 10/20/11 11:43 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
HAWKSTAR69 Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 04/05/11
He be younger than Shields, dawg.

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#1520018 - 10/20/11 11:44 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: HAWKSTAR69]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
Quote:

We traded a Cy Young winner (Chipotle) for a guy who started at shortstop (Yuni) for a playoff team last year and now, a little over a year later, we want to trade for a downgrade at P (Shields)? How hard could being a GM really be?




God forbid that they trade for this guy and expect him to be an ace, but if a trade does happen, it won't be for what we got from the ZG trade.
_________________________
" Stay thirsty my friends ".

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#1520019 - 10/20/11 12:18 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: HAWKSTAR69]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

He be younger than Shields, dawg.




Did I say he was older?
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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