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#1519981 - 09/28/11 03:30 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
The problem is that there are just not very many guys available worth anything close to a premium package. Unless the Brewers trade Zack.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519982 - 09/28/11 05:07 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I would have a very hard time dealing Myers and Butler for Cain.

What about Butler and Melky for Cain? I'd pull the trigger on that....not sure if the GIants would though.

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#1519983 - 09/30/11 10:59 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Just checked and the Giants are going to owe a small fortune for their starting 5 next season. Maybe Cain could be possible.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519984 - 09/30/11 12:34 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
I think Cain is a distinct possibility, and a great option if the Royals truly want to try and acquire a #1 or #2 starter.

But I'm sure we wouldn't be the only team bidding for him if he were to become available, and that usually means the Royals won't be getting him.

Would be awfully nice though.

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#1519985 - 09/30/11 12:43 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
We're not bidding in dollars here. Royals are in the other league and have a lot to offer. They're as positioned as well as anyone.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519986 - 10/02/11 11:26 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

It shapes up as a pretty simple off-season for general manager Dayton Moore and his lieutenants; they have just one “must” on their check list between now and next February when the Royals report for spring training in Surprise, Ariz.

Acquire a front-line starting pitcher.

“That’s it in a nutshell,” one club official said. “We need that one veteran reliable guy to build around. We’d love to get two but, realistically, that’s probably not going to happen. But one guy, if he’s the right guy, should be enough to make a big difference.”

So, yes, the Royals will look hard at the free-agent list.

While CC Sabathia (assuming he opts out of his contract) and C.J. Wilson are likely to be too pricey, the Royals figure to take a run at Edwin Jackson. But club officials say any impact acquisition is likely to come through a trade.

“We’ll be aggressive,” Moore said, “but it’s got to make sense. And from everything I hear, everyone is looking for pitching. So we’ll see.”

Moore is already on record for his willingness to deal prospects for that much-needed arm. That means guys in the minors; not those already in the big leagues. So, no, Eric Hosmer isn’t likely to go anywhere. Neither is Sal Perez nor Mike Moustakas.

“The bottom line is we can’t weaken our strengths,” Moore said. “We can’t regress in one area to try to become a little bit better in another area.”

The Royals might dangle some of their young relievers as part of a deal — which is one reason they wanted to get a late-season look at Vin Mazzaro in the bullpen. But the key element in any swap is likely to come from the club’s collection of minor-league talent.

Cleveland offered a possible blueprint in late July by trading its top two pitching prospects, Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, as part of a five-player deal to get Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado.

“I love our prospects,” another Royals official said, “but all that matters is what you do up here. If we can get the guy we need, and it costs us Cheslor Cuthbert or Wil Myers or even (Mike) Montgomery or (Jake) Odorizzi, I think we do it. Now, it has to be the right guy …”

Club officials are reluctant, unsurprisingly, to reveal possible trade targets. One said only half-jokingly: “You can probably go through all the rosters. Anyone who fits the profile is on our list.”

Even so, some names are already making the rounds: James Shields (Rays), Chad Billingsley (Dodgers), Gio Gonzalez (A’s), Jair Jurrjens (Braves), Wandy Rodriguez (Astros) along with Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs.

Shields seems the best fit — if the Rays are indeed willing to deal him after their surprising run to postseason — because his salary is about to jump from $4.25 million to $7 million in 2012, $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014.

That might be more than the frugal Rays can afford, but it fits within the Royals’ short-term payroll structure — especially because there are buyout options each year. Tampa Bay is also seeking high-end, position-player prospects, which the Royals possess.

Shields, while just 29, is also used to being the lynchpin in a young staff. But he gave up seven runs and threw two wild pitches in five innings Saturday as the Rays lost 8-6 at Texas, evening their AL playoff series at one game apiece.

The Dodgers are a financial mess at the moment, which could lead them to shop Billingsley, whose three-year, $35 million deal takes effect next season and includes a club option for 2015 at $14 million.

Many industry insiders believe the A’s will shop pitching this winter, and the Royals have always liked Gonzalez, who becomes eligible for arbitration after this season.

Atlanta is loaded with young pitchers and is likely to see what it can get for Jurrjens, whose salary will jump this winter as a first-time arbitration eligible. But he comes with a red flag; injuries limited him to 20 and 23 starts over the last two years.

Houston tried to trade Rodriguez in its July fire sale, but his contract is steep: a guaranteed $25.5 million over the next two years. Some scouts believe Rodriguez’s stuff plays out no better than a No. 3 starter on a good American League team.

The Cubs appear in line for a major overhaul and, from all accounts, are willing to eat a sizable portion of Zambrano’s guaranteed $37.25 million over the next two years just to unload him. He’s a legitimate No. 1 when in top form, but his baggage is considerable.

Dempster appears on the decline and holds an option for next season at $14 million. Scouts say he has the leadership intangibles the Royals desire, but he might top out as a borderline No. 3 starter. The Royals are hoping for more; he might be a fall-back option.

The Cubs seem inclined to retain Garza, who is in line for a raise through arbitration from his $5.95 million salary before reaching free-agent eligibility after next season. Even if available, how much do the Royals want to surrender for one year?

“We’re not going to do anything that doesn’t make sense for us in the long term,” Moore said. “That’s why the most important thing for us is to make the pitchers we have better. If we can just trim our walks by 100, that would be huge.”

The Royals led the American League in walks, which was the main reason that pitching coach Bob McClure was fired after six seasons.

“I think there’s a lot of upside in our rotation,” manager Ned Yost said. “I think (Luke) Hochevar really turned a corner the second half; I think Danny Duffy is going to be a tremendous pitcher; I think (Felipe) Paulino has a chance to be a very solid producer.

“I was very impressed with (Luis) Mendoza when he came up; I was impressed with (Everett) Teaford these last couple of starts. We’ve got Vin Mazzaro, who’ll have a shot. We’ve got Montgomery, who will compete for a spot. We’re going to try Aaron Crow as a starter next spring. So I think we’re going to have enough solid pitching to help us get better.”

Nonetheless, club officials aren’t kidding themselves. They know they need a reliable veteran arm who, preferably, is a legitimate starter No. 2 on a postseason contender; failing that, a solid No. 3 guy.

“We need 1,000 innings out of our rotation,” Moore said. “I’ve been very consistent with that from day one. To win a world championship, you’d better dominate in a couple of areas. Certainly, pitching is one of them.”



Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/2011/10/01/3179129/royals-goal-for-next-season-find.html#ixzz1ZdtGlbdI


_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519987 - 10/02/11 06:09 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
christgs80 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 05/17/04
Some of those names mentioned I would have zero interest in the Royals going after (Zambrano, Dempster, Rodriguez).

Gio Gonzalez is an interesting name......I like him a lot from seeing a few of his starts and would be a legitimate #1 starter in KC.

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#1519988 - 10/03/11 11:42 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
jammahawk Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/02/05
Loc: In the Corleone compound
My goal for the Royals next year is to get above .500, and then in 2013 go for it.
I think we are a year ahead of trying to get a front of the rotation guy.
I'd rather see Duffy and Montgomery get a full year in at the major league level.
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#1519989 - 10/03/11 11:46 AM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: jammahawk]
CrimsonNBlue Offline
Tee Y

Registered: 10/04/05
Loc: KC, MO
Quote:

My goal for the Royals next year is to get above .500, and then in 2013 go for it.
I think we are a year ahead of trying to get a front of the rotation guy.
I'd rather see Duffy and Montgomery get a full year in at the major league level.




I see your point, but we were pretty good batting all year and really good the second half of the season.

If we're going to re-sign Frenchy and offer Melky arbitration, then we need to go after it next season. The central isn't very good and I don't think we're risking too much by going after it next season, provided we get a guy. And not just any guy, no reason to trade just to trade.
_________________________
"...in my opinion, the most prestigious chair in all of college basketball." -Bill Self

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#1519990 - 10/03/11 12:38 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: CrimsonNBlue]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Well...you have to break things down and build them back up to really see where we go from here.

The Royals were 38-43 in the second half. If you figure that the second-half roster is what the Royals will enter 2012 with, barring no offseason moves, the current roster's quick-and-dirty projection is 76-86. That's about ten games short of true contention (which I would argue as being good enough that getting reasonably lucky means you make the playoffs).

It's highly unlikely that the Royals can acquire one player who will add ten wins to the Royals. Justin Verlander, the presumptive Cy Young winner this year, was worth 7.0 wins or 8.6 wins, depending on your preferred source. If you replace all of Davies', O'Sullivan's, and Mazzaro's innings with Verlander's season, you will net out 7.0 wins or 11.9 wins (again, depending on your source).

But there's probably nowhere near that good of a pitcher available (and a starting pitcher is where the Royals can make the biggest gain in the fewest amount of roster spots). James Shields, for reference, was worth 4.9 or 6.1 wins this year, in both cases the highest of his career.

I think it's fair to expect that the Royals can acquire, at best, five marginal wins in the form of one starting pitcher. The returns on a second pitcher would diminish somewhat; this is intuitive: replacing bad pitchers with a good pitcher goes farther than replacing a mediocre pitcher with a good pitcher.

One pitcher, five wins, so that's 81-81.

But is that quick-and-dirty projection right? That gets way more complex than I can get into here, but: the Royals roster is subject to a sort of fascinating combination of regression (which is not always bad) and improvement. It's unlikely any of the core players will decline, as that word is used differently from regression.

Gordon will probably be worse. Hosmer will probably be better. Perez will probably be worse. Moustakas will probably be better. Francoeur and Cabrera will probably be worse. Butler and Soria will probably be better.

And then there's the young arms. Make no mistake, there's still a ton of talent there. And also make no mistake: the Royals cannot sustain success--which is the goal--by tearing the farm system asunder in a misguided effort to go for a playoff appearance or two.

Which is why I would play this offseason conservatively, despite the collective angst it would generate among the fanbase. There aren't more than 20 pitchers in baseball who would make a big enough difference to make trading high-end prospects worth it. If you can get a Cole Hamels or a James Shields or a Matt Cain, maybe you do sacrifice a blue-chip guy. But, absent a high-leverage move, I think you stand relatively still.

I think that, between Duffy improving, Crow getting a look in the rotation, and the likely emergence of at least one more rotation-quality starter (Montgomery?) in the spring, spending prospects on anything less than a true front-line guy would be wasteful.

In the end, I like the idea of betting on your own talent rather than making a move for the sake of making a move.
_________________________
2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519991 - 10/03/11 03:43 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: christgs80]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
Quote:

What about Butler and Melky for Cain? I'd pull the trigger on that....not sure if the GIants would though.




You would pull the trigger on this?? No way. That is taking the #2 and #3 hittters out of the lineup that was arguably a top 5 offensive club this year. All for what, a patch to a gaping whole otherwise known as the starting rotation? I'm sorry but I definitely believe that having both melky and billy's bats (along with fairly generous contracts) in the lineup as opposed to a second tier pitcher.
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#1519992 - 10/03/11 03:52 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: tyler]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
Gosh, I'd do that deal in a second.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519993 - 10/03/11 04:13 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
Quote:

Gosh, I'd do that deal in a second.




And why is that? How many more wins would Cain actually provide compared to the runs produced from the two players from the heart of the order?
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I felt like Deion!

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#1519994 - 10/03/11 04:28 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: tyler]
JFish26 Offline
Max Falkenstien

Registered: 03/17/05
Loc: KC, MO
You know, scratch that. Cain makes $15 million next year and is only signed through the season.

But, for discussion purposes...Cain has been, typically, worth about as much himself as Butler and Cabrera have been worth combined; this was a bizarro-land year for Melky, and it is dangerous to assume he won't regress.

I don't mean to piggyback on Simmons here, but it is always, always better to have a dollar bill than two fifty-cent pieces. In fact, it's better to have one player worth $.80 than two players worth $1.00 together.

It's all about maximizing the impact you get from each roster spot. That's why the talk is all about adding at least one premium pitcher this offseason; it's the highest-leverage move the Royals can make. Ryan Braun would be less of an upgrade over Alex Gordon than Cain would be over O'Sullivan/Mazzaro/Davies.
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2013-14 -- One for the other thumb.

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#1519995 - 10/03/11 04:32 PM Re: What's the most you would give up for J. Shields? [Re: JFish26]
tyler Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 01/30/07
Loc: Lawrence
Ok, I completely agree with you as far as the money metaphor goes. I had meant to mention the contract the Cain carries, but did make mention of contracts in my comment two posts before. I am a huge fan of Cain but would like to wait until maybe we could lock him up long term or maybe the Giants pay a portion of it.
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