"Another very difficult to predict factor will be the other first year coaches in our conference we'll be playing against. Coaching transitions almost always equal big drops in the win column for most teams. The exceptions seem to happen when a better coach takes over a team that under performed under the previous coach, which I think is exactly what will happen here at KU, or a coach is taking over a loaded blue blood team where the talent level makes it hard to take much of a hit."

keep in mind that Bama lost to LA-Monroe on Saban's watch. I think it was year 2 but it may have been year 1