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#1167841 - 03/24/10 03:32 PM Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious) *
caddystacks Offline
Jhaux

Registered: 11/21/09
Bill Self: To Fire, or Not To Fire
Waving Goodbye?That is not really the question. However, I have actually heard people suggesting it. If you look simply and exclusively at one metric, maybe they have a point. However, considering the big picture, its a preposterous notion.

THE GOOD

As I indicated in my previous post about Bill (pre Northern Iowa) Self, he is the winningest coach in KU history in his first seven seasons even more wins than Williams had (202 to 184).

In fact, Self has more wins than any other coach has ever had at any other D1 school in his first seven years with that school in NCAA history!

Coach
School
Wins

Bill Self
Kansas
202

Roy Williams
North Carolina
194*

Tubby Smith
Kentucky
189

Mark Few
Gonzaga
186

Roy Williams
Kansas
184

Rick Pitino
Kentucky
184

Bruce Weber
Illinois
173*

Bo Ryan
Wisconsin
173

John Chaney
Temple
172

Rick Pitino
Louisville
169

Jerry Tarkanian
UNLV
167

Tom Izzo
Michigan State
167

Bob Huggins
Cincinnati
167

Nolan Richardson
Arkansas
167

Billy Tubbs
Oklahoma
165

Eddie Sutton
Arkansas
164

John Calipari
Memphis
163

John Kresse
Charleston
163

Denny Crum
Louisville
162

Bobby Knight
Indiana
162

Lute Olson
Arizona
162

Rick Barnes
Texas
161

Jim Boeheim
Syracuse
159



- * Still playing this season.

With the exception of Knight, all these coaches began their stint at these schools with a possible 40 wins per season. And, in case you are wondering where Coach K is, he had 146 wins in his first seven seasons at Duke.

As I also mentioned in my previous post, only Memphis has had more victories over the last seven seasons than Kansas and if you deduct their 38 vacated wins from 2008, Kansas stands alone at the top although Duke is only one behind and still playing.

Considering Selfs worst season at Kansas was 23 victories, thats still a 161 rate (23 times seven) and even that level would still be on this list.

So, what possible reason could anyone even the mentally challenged have against Self? Undoubtedly the same thing that people had against RW when I was championing his cause failures in the tournament.



THE BAD

Ok, the abridged argument goes like this. If not for a missed three-pointer in 2008, the mighty Kansas Jayhawks would have lost to Bucknell, Bradley, Davidson and Northern Iowa in four of the last five NCAA tournaments.

Now for the longer version.

In 2005, Kansas was a #3 seed and lost in the first round to a #14 seed (Bucknell).

In 2006, Kansas was a #4 seed and lost in the first round to a #13 seed (Bradley).

In 2007, Kansas was a #1 seed and squeaked out a three point win over Southern Illinois in the S-16. And, they lost by 13 in the E-8. A #1 is supposed to go to the F-4.

In 2008, #1 seed Kansas beat #10 seed Davidson by two points winning because a last second shot by the Wildcats failed to drop.

In 2009, Kansas met the standard. They were a #3 and they lost to a #2 by four points.

In 2010, Kansas was a #1 seed and lost in the second round to a #9 seed (Northern Iowa).

A valid question is whether any other team has underperformed as badly over this period of time as KU. Even with the national championship, a quick analysis indicates few teams have done as poorly meaning underwon as many games as Kansas since 2005. The only one I know of is Duke (-8) not counting the 2010 tournament.


Self has won six games less than he should have based upon his seed in the seven seasons he has been at Kansas.



Year
Seed
Wins
Over/Under

2004
4
3
+1

2005
3
0
-2

2006
4
0
-2

2007
1
3
-1

2008
1
6
+1

2009
3
2
Equal

2010
1
1
-3

TOTAL


-6


-

Of course, seven years is not a exactly a huge sample, although in the coaching world, it is a lifetime for evaluation purposes. Even so, in order to appreciate his ability (good or bad) in the tournament, we want to go back before Kansas to increase the sample size back to Illinois and Tulsa.

Here is another table showing those stints.



Year
School
Seed
Wins
Over/Under

1999
Tulsa
9
1
+1

2000
Tulsa
7
3
+2

2001
Illinois
1
3
-1

2002
Illinois
4
2
Equal

2003
Illinois
4
1
-1

TOTAL



+1


-

Its also worth pointing out that in these five seasons, Self played a #9 once (+18 points) and a #16 once (+42). He also played a #12 (+12) and two #13s (+17 avg.).

So, he not only won more games (+1) than his seed would assume, but he won the games against weak competition very easily (+21.2 ppg average).



THE BIG QUESTION(s)

Is it possible that Self cant manage that much talent? Is it possible that that he simply doesnt understand the dynamics of the NCAA tournament as a heavy favorite? Is it possible he forgot how to get his players prepared? Is it possible he doesnt do as good a job of scouting the next team as someone else? Is it possible that he cant motivate his players when they face weaker competition?

OR

Is it possible that its just fate, coincidence, bad luck or the way it goes.

Im on board with the last of these possibilities. I think there are too many unique variables that play into tournament games. Yes, Kansas has had more than their share of embarrassments in the tourney, but the two coaches were Williams and Self and they have both won national championships. The more times you are the big dog on the block - and nobody has won as many games as KU in the last (pick the year going back to 1984) - you are going to be exposed. The more times you are exposed, the more opportunity to be upset. It goes with the territory.

Self has done nothing (other than a few upsets in the tournament) at Kansas to even remotely hint that he is anything other than a great coach. Hes one of a handful of best recruiters in the country, hes engaging, hes won more games than anyone, he represents the school as well as Tiger Woods represented the PGA

ooops.

Ok, so if he goes off and has a few more adulterous affairs with Lousy Losses or her sister Dismal Defeats, I might change my mind. But, hes built up a tremendous amount of good will even apart from the 2008 championship. It will take at least a couple more Northern Iowas before I would even think about putting a golf club upside his head.

The big negative for the moment is whether it will affect recruiting. Kansas needed more exposure in this tournament for recruits. And, imagine what two NCs in three seasons would have been worth! Although the team has a ton of talent coming back next year regardless of what anyone does with the NBA, the existing recruiting class is one player and hes not ranked very high.

Additionally, Selfs style of play is not that exciting and if I were a competing coach, Id make a big deal out of it. I dont have any idea where Kansas ranks nationally on fast break points. To my knowledge nobody keeps the stat, but the fact is, they dont fast break much. Against UNI, they had a whopping two points. Correct me if Im wrong, but the best kids coming out of high school want to motor up and down the court. Of course, KU does average over 80ppg with their half-court style. As long as the recruits dont watch the tapes and they understand that #5 in the nation means 342 behind them and only four in front you might be able to sell the idea of playing fast. Obviously Self can.

A discussion about the future of Kansas Basketball is for another time. For now, KU should be thrilled to death to have Self and thrilled to (almost) death about the season. Would you rather lose to Syracuse in the championship game by three points when you shoot 12-30 from the line or would you rather lose to Northern Iowa in the second round? The fact is that I lament losing to Syracuse a LOT more often than I lament losing to UTEP or Rhode Island. Unless KU were to have won it all this season, I really dont care all that much about when they lose. But, of course... I'm not you.


Submitted by Martin Manley on March 23, 2010 http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/2037


Edited by caddystacks (03/24/10 03:53 PM)

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#1167842 - 03/24/10 03:57 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious) [Re: caddystacks]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Great post, Caddystacks! Interesting stats and discussion.

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#1167843 - 03/24/10 04:10 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious)
Coyote88 Offline
Crimson & Blue Blood

Registered: 03/21/10
Well 7 years ago if someone would have said he was going to win 202 games 6 conference titles and a National title but lose in the tourney early three times I think we all would have been thrilled to death so once again we have the best coach and the nation and any of this talk about him under acheiving is just crazy.

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#1167844 - 03/24/10 04:14 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious) [Re: Coyote88]
caddystacks Offline
Jhaux

Registered: 11/21/09
I always knew Duke was the most underachieving team, this confirms it

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#1167845 - 03/24/10 04:31 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious) [Re: Coyote88]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Quote:

Well 7 years ago if someone would have said he was going to win 202 games 6 conference titles and a National title but lose in the tourney early three times I think we all would have been thrilled to death so once again we have the best coach and the nation and any of this talk about him under acheiving is just crazy.




The tone of this board is changing today. Maybe the grieving process is over. Now we have graduated to the gratitude mind set. RCJH!

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#1167846 - 03/24/10 04:36 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious) [Re: caddystacks]
SashasVodka Offline
JohnBrownWithARifle

Registered: 05/01/08
Loc: KC
Self's relative over-achievement before KU and his underachievement at KU, coupled with Roy's relative underachievement at KU, and his meeting and exceeding expectations at UNC brings up the question of whether there is simply more pressure on kids to perform at KU, similar to what you see at Duke, where excellence breeds excellence but also exceeding pressure.

Having said that, if failure is a national title, league championships, weeks and weeks of being rated #1 and a few crushing upsets in the tournament, I'll take failure. Even though it has thrown me into sports depression (which thankfully enough for me doesn't carry over to other parts of my life, and has actually allowed me to have ur-focus on a grant I'm trying to write right now; except for being on this [censored] board...)
_________________________
Mclemore.

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#1167847 - 03/24/10 04:36 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious)
Derek98z Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 08/23/07
Loc: Raymore, MO
Quote:

The tone of this board is changing today. Maybe the grieving process is over. Now we have graduated to the gratitude mind set. RCJH!




Now that some of the trolls are leaving and the media is shifting more towards this coming weekend, things are getting easier.

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#1167848 - 03/24/10 05:05 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serious) [Re: Derek98z]
Jeff_Burtin Offline
Phog Fanatic

Registered: 11/14/07
Loc: Lawrence, Kansas
I think you also have to consider that at Kansas Bill Self tends to get much higher seeds than he would elsewhere.

If you're the #1 overall seed, then there are 63 teams with the potential to make you underperform.

If you're an 8 seed, there are less than half that many, and by all rights you should probably be out by the second round.

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#1167849 - 03/24/10 05:24 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serio [Re: caddystacks]
RovingSign Offline
Prairie Warrior

Registered: 02/17/10
Thanks for this. I needed it.

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#1167850 - 03/24/10 05:40 PM Re: Bill Self: To Fire or Not to Fire? (not serio [Re: RovingSign]
Anonymous
Unregistered

Quote:

Thanks for this. I needed it.




Yes, we needed this. The grieving is over.

Put your hands on your computer and feel the love!

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#1167851 - 03/24/10 05:43 PM Feel the love
Anonymous
Unregistered

Caddystacks makes good posts. I gave him a five star rating.

Put your hands on your computer and feel the love!

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#1167852 - 03/24/10 05:52 PM Re: Feel the love
HawkRawker Offline
Eunuch

Registered: 11/04/07
Loc: Jayhawk Nation
Self had a chance to put himself over the top this year, I think Cal might do it and prove he's the best. From coming in late spring to landing a monster class in roughly a month...to making all the young and arrogant freshmen glue together. I almost expect them to march to the beat of about 10 pt victories the rest of the way. They look that good. And now almost everyone on his team...even the bench players are getting NBA hype. I just don't think Self is as good of a coach as him...even though Cal seems dirty.
_________________________
If I advise, we regress.

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#1167853 - 03/24/10 06:01 PM Re: Feel the love [Re: HawkRawker]
SashasVodka Offline
JohnBrownWithARifle

Registered: 05/01/08
Loc: KC
Quote:

...now almost everyone on his team...even the bench players are getting NBA hype....




KU in '08?
_________________________
Mclemore.

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#1167854 - 03/24/10 06:17 PM Re: Feel the love [Re: SashasVodka]
elvis151 Offline
Baby Jay

Registered: 01/17/06
Loc: Kansas
Self's a better coach than Cal.

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#1167855 - 03/24/10 06:18 PM Re: Feel the love [Re: elvis151]
hasbeen Offline
Zipper Jiggler

Registered: 06/23/05
Nah, bruh. Cal brings in monster classes. That by itself makes him better than Bill. Never mind the game played in 2008, ok?
_________________________
"I [censored] your mother's dead corpse" - larryb, the victim.

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